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~89 keys
scorch
Unusual Big Chief Scorching Flames
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Fixing my monumental cock-up, thanks Wesley XD


http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/20119863 Offered, techincally, I guess, with a ghost lucha (5) and a smoking stove pipe (Outdated at 1, mini at 1) for a scorching lucha (10.1)

No overpay, 10.1 - 6 = 4.1

total: ~4 buds


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20348160

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20814524


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087122717?time=1402642800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087122717?time=1402729200


apppears to have sold with a blizzardy tavish (.7 buds) for a duped beams phantom (6)

(6 * 0.9) - 0.7 = 4.7

___

Duped Phantom Mini:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21960736 6 buds + sweets (could not find any sweets in backpack)

= 6

Using 6


Smoking Scotsman mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21801442 B/O of 1 (3 weeks)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21224186 Sold for NnB Tyrolean (~0.9) + sweets (0.2)

1.1 * 0.9 = 0.99 (rounding to 1)

Using 1.


Let it ride X3

Ban gent for messing up pls


Big chief is cheaper than I thought.

    the duped phantom had also sold for $280 3 weeks ago.

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20362501


    the 6 buds sold in ~3 days, and the OP claimed to have another buyer at 6, seems quicksellish to me.


    i have no clue if this will change anything, but imo every piece of proof should be shown for a proper evaluation.


      I think the Duped Phantom selling for 8+, when the clean one is only seven-ish, is fair to call an outlier :3

      Your cock-up cost me almost a bud, man.


      why you do this

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20348160 - based on the offers, range seems quite low. Sales are dated. Your first sale is dated, complex, and sold quickly. That one in particular seems problematic.

          He was considering accepting Heart Hound Dog + Searing Hound Hog, which is 4.6 which overpay.

          I grant you the complex sale is probably low though... resuggest at 4.7 flat, maybe?

            And yet he also received an offer of 5 pure and other offers that will be >5 in value. Furthermore, on trades like these, typically the lower value hat is offered on the higher value hat. Wouldn't be surprised at all if this was offered on the phantom putting it at 5.3. That seems closer to where the value of this is at

              So I'm resuggesting getting a range from an offer and a 'probably'. 'kay.