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4 month old price
Offered alongside a Specialized Big Kill (~0.6, spec kit ~0.5 on SCM) and ~3 keys in sweets for a Circling Hearts Napper's Respite (~5.2) = ~4.5 for Tree
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21901041 (Proof of offer)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106373254?time=1408258800 (Proof of final sale)
Sold alongside 2 buds for a Scorching Rather Festive Tree (~6.6) = ~4.6
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045694677?time=1404975600 (Before)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045694677?time=1405062000 (After)
Sold for 4 buds + 2 keys + Black Bills = ~4.4
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1408172400 (Before)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039731024?time=1408258800 (After)
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22322888 5.5 buds, 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21147974 5 buds, 1 month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22316417 5 buds, 2 days
I could give this a range but considering I have a sale at 4.5 and two more at +/- 0.1 that a flat price is the better representation of the hats value.
seems legit for me, upvote