First suggestion, probably shouldn't have chosen to do bread box.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Bread%20Box&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1

Classifieds at time of suggestion:

1x 1 Key 3 Ref (1.4 Keys)

1x 11 Ref

1x 12 Ref

1x 1 Key 5 Ref (1.66 Keys)

1x 13 Ref

3x 1 Key 6 Ref (1.8 Keys)

Unsolds at 2 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22128227 - Unsold 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22246953 - Unsold 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22168036 - Unsold 5 at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22334309 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22230189 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22253447 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22181370 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22289296 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22355985 - Unsold at 1 Key 4 Ref – 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21941697 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 3 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22265525 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22247614 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22347958 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22351119 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22326409 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22326149 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22241125 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22152910 - Unsold 2 at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22152910 - Unsold 5 at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22344092 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22181009 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22157209 - Unsold 5 at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21905404 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 3 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22240886 - Unsold at 1 Key 6 ref – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22273510 - Unsold 2 at 2 Keys – 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22230058 - Unsold 3 at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22229205 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22322705 - Unsold at 2 Keys – 4 days

Sellers below 2 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22412703 - Selling 1 Key 6 Ref (6/7.44=0.806. Round down to 0.8. 1.8 Keys.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22411717 - Selling 1 Key 4.44 Ref (4.44/7.44=0.596. Round up to 0.6. 1.6 Keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22411551 - Selling 1 Key 3 Ref (3/7.44=0.403. Round down to 0.4. 1.4 Keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22408704 - Selling 13 Ref (13-7.44=5.55. 5.55/7.44=0.745. Round down to 0.7. 1.7 Keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22395449 - Selling 1 Key 4 Ref (4/7.44=0.537. Round down to 0.5. 1.5 Keys)

1.8+1.6+1.4+1.7+1.5=8 Keys. 8/5=1.6 Keys average.

Feedback, help and additional/counter proof is appreciated.