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~170 keys
burning
Unusual Buccaneer's Bicorne Burning Flames
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It was all for this xD

Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used


Sales

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079460694?time=1404198000 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079460694?time=1404284400

Stormy 13th Napper + Cauldron Snaggle = 11 buds


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065902761?time=1403766000 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065902761?time=1403852400

Burning Attendant = 12 buds


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056553746?time=1408345200 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056553746?time=1408431600

Ghosts Fedora + TW Pardner + Duped Harvest Jeepcap + Aussie FJ + Stormy Tyrant + Logo Killer = 16.5 buds (outlier?)


Mini for duped Harvest Jeepcap:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22316542 - AF Drill = 6.3 buds (No overpay since offered)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22255316 - 4 buds


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072097368?time=1409122800 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072097368?time=1409209200

3 buds + 5 keys + Aussie FJ = 4 buds


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095002538?time=1409036400 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095002538?time=1409209200

Roboactive Soviet = 3.6 buds


Taking it as 3.6-4


Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3

    Haha, I remember my failed suggestion for this. Anyway, sale at ~11 here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20535318 from my last one, upvote!

      Thanks. Didn't use it because the cap was outdated, but I guess, if you think about it, it wasn't outdated at the time.

      Thanks again, I guess it would've been good to use.

        Well I think it's ~2.5 months ago, a bit close to the limit, but it's some supporting proof nevertheless.

      One just sold for a scorching yellow belt.

        Which one?

          It looks like the dude who paid 16.5 sold it for a scorching myb.

            Meh, I'll let the mods decide about this ^^

              It also seems like one sold for a c9 ke a month or so ago.

                Aye, but it's 3 months since the last update, so it definitely dropped. I'm not bothered to put in time atm for a suggestion/mini on it :/

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22529501 - added ~10 keys for a spellbound impaler. probably offered - might be able to price that after this

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21584914 - might be able to price the logo gibus too - offered + 2 buds for that (previous suggestion indicates value might be close to 20?) sale of 18?

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22421815 - offered on the scorching belt. belt was clean. 2 buds were added, so ~15

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21786067 - this is the one that went for the c9 KE (previous owner got it for a duped sparkle luger ~15?) 15?

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20364368 - sold for 15 pure


        I'm having a hard time figuring out what the range should be. Clearly 15 needs to be in the range.


        Sales at 11, 12, 15, 15, 15, 17, 18. I think >15 are probably outliers given the 15 pure b/o. I would call 11 an outlier on the low end. But that sale at 12... I feel 12-15 is too low but 15 flat is too high. The 2 person history went for 15 pure. I would think that's the upper limit and a regular clean one would be ~13-14 or so. Really think range here is probably 13 or 14-15. But don't really have sales to set that low end. Tough call.