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Pot is awesome soldier hat! 10/10!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22156164 - sold for aussie medi-gun. 1.5 with overpay.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21773310 - seems to have sold for 2 buds pure
Yey!
I'm pretty sure the aussie medigun trade is most probably an outlier. I believe there are many other recent sales than just the two of these. Try finding them. Staying neutral.
I did try finding for a long while. It got tricky just before cranwell's trade. :/ Very hard to find traceable ones.
You do realize that there are other vivid pots than just the one previously owned by cranwell:
http://backpack.tf/item/2162192597
http://backpack.tf/item/943388376
http://backpack.tf/item/347088975
http://backpack.tf/item/237269103
Plenty of other sales available, and as mentioned earlier, the first sale that you provided might've been an outlier.
I just don't see why it's an outlier
P.S. those pots have some last sales from ages ago. Couldn't find any old trades of them on Outpost
Outpost isn't the only way to find a sale, 80% of the time, neither the buyers nor sellers state details of sales in their trades, and the items traded may not be listed on outpost itself. Using backpack.tf history checker is one reliable (though not always accurate) way to find out additional sales.
Sales that are still valid:
http://backpack.tf/item/943388376 - tony stark > illusion
http://backpack.tf/item/347088975 - McDonalds > debug.mode > axis > Korean name guy
http://backpack.tf/item/237269103 - Garry > Super
There are at least 4-5 valid sales from all those links (not counting the ones you included.
You say you don't see why sale #1 is an outlier, that's because that sale already make up 50% of your proof. You provided two sales only when there are plenty of other sales available, what if all of them sold for +/- 3 buds? We won't know until we find out what the others sold for. Search their backpack history to see what the other vivid pots roughly sold for. If its a complicated sale, try adding the seller and ask him.
As much as I would like to upvote, I can't possibly do so when there are so many other recent sales left unrecorded.
He wanted an aussie med-gun. No overpay should be applied. Most likely, he offered on one.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21321450 - sold for 2.5 pure - http://puu.sh/bJFAN/4fe6d2ab11.png
Given that it sold for 2.5 in pure within a few days, the medigun sale is probably an outlier anyways