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4 Ref is impossible to sell.
Please note that there is only one page on Outpost, some of them have "glitch paints". Some Guys are highballing it at 1 key.
Sellers under 4 Refineds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22494088 - 3 (Possibly Outlier )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22477789 - 3.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22501484 - 3.66
Unsolds at 4 Refineds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22011525 - 3 Weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22251421 - 1 Week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22441362 - 3 Days ( Never bumped )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22499564 - 1 Day
Classifieds:
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?tradable=1&craftable=-1&item=Pencil%20Pusher&quality=6
2 Sellers at 3 Refineds ( All of them are youngs )
1 Seller at 3.33 Refineds
1 Seller at 3.66 Refineds
Given the circumstances within this case, the proof is small, but arguably sufficient enough. Upboat.