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Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21594450 - Miami Viewfinder = 10 buds
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070266019?time=1406444400 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070266019?time=1406617200
Harvest Hermes + Ghosts Kabuto ---> Beak + Steaming Modest + S. Caber
Beak = 8 buds
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3
Just for mod reference, the ghosts buto will need to be assessed before this.
So now that the buto is resolved, the question becomes whether it's okay to price this based on the dupe with halloween just around the corner. Will check with other mods and let you know.
Agreed, I don't think you should price this of a duped sale. But there is also this duped sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22680253 - Sold for Scorching Elfin + Orbiting Fire Ballcap + Orbiting Fire Yellowbelt (7.7 buds) [Offer Value: 6.9 buds]
Backpack of Buyer
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002389482?time=1410937200
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002389482?time=1411023600
Backpack of Seller
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072605490?time=1411023600
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072605490?time=1411110000
Duped sales vary so I don't think 8 should be in the range honestly
So mods don't all agree on whether it's okay to price off the duped. I personally don't have an issue with making a new suggestion at ~9-10 if you feel strongly about it. As for the complex sale, I don't see a trade up for the beak by lomcharton which leads me to think that the beak was offered. If I missed the trade for that, it's fine to use overpay and to count the sale at 8.5. But if there was never a trade up, most likely it was offered, so you should just take mid-values for all items involved.