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Thanks to Eviction, I lost my proof for the Cloud 9 Plug-In. Thanks alot.
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22531460 17 Keys, 4 Days unsold(Seems to have owned it for 2+ weeks tho)
Solds:
Sold for an Orbiting Planets Frenchman's Beret + Minor sweets(~6 ref)(15 Keys with Overpay)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118475250?time=1404802800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118475250?time=1404889200
Sold for a Blizzardy Storm Grimm Hatte(18 Keys with Overpay, Outlier)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108977083?time=1406803885 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108977083?time=1407049200
Sold for 15 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065683874?time=1407135600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065683874?time=1407279687
Comparing the 18 Sale to the other two sales and the seller, it's a clear outlier. 15 Keys should be fine.
Additional Proof/Counter-Proof/Constructive Criticism/Feedback is always appreciated.
15 - 18 isn't a huge range
and you should add the guy to confirm nothing else was added. i just proved 2 items from just looking at outpost
Two sales at 15, one sale at 18. one seller at 17 that has been unsold for 2 Weeks apparently(alot of reposts)
Unless there's a second sale at 18 or higher I'm convinced that it's an outlier(The Grimm will be priced at less when buds drop again anyways)
numero uno: a s. eyelander was also added in the 1st trade
7.66 ref / 8.22 = 0.93
16.15 * 0.9 + 0.93 = 15.46... by the power of maths i call this sale 16
numero duo: the guy bought it for a bmoc + 8 keys ~18
numero tre: quickbuyer for 15 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14530807
two are buying for 14,but that's unrelated
proof https://www.dropbox.com/s/8pb0toyoyp6yn8r/gorubber.PNG?dl=0
click click boom
You round off to the nearest number, not a number .5 decs away, Sale is still 15.
Also found another sale:
Added 2 Keys in Sweets for a Green Confetti Ze Googles(17 Keys with Overpay)(15 Keys total)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22601092
Not to mention, the new owner of this is asking for 1 Bud(17 Keys):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22610556
Also, considering that this one went to the quickseller at 15 that you mentioned, that's yet ANOTHER sale at 15:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22157371
click click boom
if he added for the goggles,it would be logical to assume he offered
so no overpay
edit: wait lol,he actually offered the glove + 2 keys in sweets on the trade. and you still took overpay
click click boom
also this hat should stay in bud range
0.9 - 1.1 would perfectly round it up
with the median being the 1 bud sellers
edit and you just aknowledged 15 keys is a quicksell :P
K, I bought this for a B.M.O.C(10 keys at the time) + 8 keys pure. I sold it for a Orb. Planets Beret+ about a key in sweets. The beret at the time was 18 keys/1 bud. So I sold it for 19 keys in items. this DOES NOT need to go down in price. So what it is 2nd gen. its still somewhat themed :/.
Your counterproof doesn't mean anything unless you prove it.
inb4 price manipulation on a hat he doesn't own
GG
there you go http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118475250?time=1403679600
bmoc + 8 keys
as histories are fucked up on bp.tf,you can see all of em went to epic http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20703332
learn to have more trust in people