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1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22070289 sold for GE pot (3.5, slightly outdated) + Stormy storm Defiant Spartan (1.4) + Eerie orbiting flames Defiant Spartan (3.5) + 7 Buds in keys (7) ~15.4, rounding to 15.
pot was offered 3.5 pure here so seems okay to call it that
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21976883
2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20928075
sold for 5 pure, presumably, trade was only up for 2 hours. unboxer sold quick n cheap, definite outlier.
no other tracable sales that i can see from the last few months, feel free to correct me on that.
waaaaat '-' GE is 5.6 buds
And Scorching and Sunbeams are 9-10 buds. GG no rekt.
Can it be assumed that 15 buds is a possible outlier?
on what basis? comparison to other effects on the same hat has never been a way to determine validity of proof as far as i'm aware.
Well are there any other offers even close to 15?
And why is 5 the outlier? Can't 15 be called the same?
because 5 was a quicksell for one, and also if a hat can sell for 15, the fact that it quicksells for 5 supports the higher value. the fact that the unboxer got rid quick for pure should not mean that a much higher sale is necessarily invalid. there aren't many other offers at all, and none near 15 that I can see.
basically my feeling is that 1 valid sale shouldn't be disregarded as an outlier just because it hasn't had great offers.
well, having spoken to some people in the history it was in a few other trades that also make no sense; one would value it approximately nothing at all and the other sale was for a taunt worth "9-10" according to the guy that sold it. gonna close this for now and wait for more clear sales.
so PE > scorching and beams, bp.tf logic
those prices are outdated, the guy who sold for 15 also sold a scorching for 20~
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21201732