This probably won't pass but meh, not like I've done it before

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10175254 - 1 year old trade, mass seller and restocket sells for 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22673064 - 5 ref seller, too young to take into account

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22653257 - 5 ref seller, 1 day old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22376573 - 5 ref seller, 2 adds, poor bumping

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22545957 - sold for 6 ref

Some others are trying to sell for 1 key, if they sell I guess the price needs to go higher, this is the entirety of the market.