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14 in the world yet only 1 on Outpost
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22652338
Selling for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22651270
Sold for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22191300
Was selling for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22093010
Was selling for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21983869
Was selling for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21973265
Was selling for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21833113
Was selling for 3 buds
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22039141
Quicksold for 2 buds 10 keys (~2.6 buds)
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20305676
Quicksold for 35 keys (~2.05 buds)
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22345370
Was selling for 2.7 buds
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bomV3Nnh1ys
Proof they sold for the B/O?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22651270
Took him ~2weeks to sell at 2.7, also a lot of "was selling for" but why don't you mentioned what they actually sold for? 3seems quuite high.
first sale didn't actually sell for 3 buds pure, included a p.e german gonzilla (may have been a 1:1)
You cannot assume a hat sold for its b/o. Drops based on b/os result in conservative drops that still leave the value of the unusual inflated. You'll need to find the exact trades. My guess is the range will end up closer to 2.5-3 or so.