Suggestion: Stormy Storm Milkman at 22.75–26 keys

Price Suggestion

~29 keys

stormy

548 votes up

489 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Fri, 17 Oct 14 13:45:52 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Please read proof before downvoting because I own one.

tl;dr A ton of 1.4 rejected offers.

This is a suggestion to raise the low end of the hat, based upon many rejected offers around or above 1.4. This is my first (proper) suggestion, please comment if the proof is valid, it should be because this is an unusual not a normal item. I don't know how to get exact dates on outpost, if anyone knows please tell me. thanks.

If anyone can find more recent suggestions please add to this. Thanks.

Most of these are rejected offers at or around 1.4. I am only touching the low end of this hat because 1.2 is too low - everyone is offering more than 1.2.

Selling, rejected/unconfirmed offers, also a few solds:

(edit): Another good proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22184379 Last trade (with v lugermorph)

"for your unusual milkman. i will give you 12 keys, around 6.5 keys in tour of duty tickets, and your choice between a vintage lugermorph, or a bunch of the new limited items"

~1.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22048875 2wks

"1 bud, a bills and a key for the milkman" - 17 + 6 + 1 = 1.4 buds offer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22155236 1mo

"26 pure" - 1.5 buds (~1.4 back then)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22081777 1 mo

"The milkman is 1.4 buds (and arrow down) on bp.tf, will you trade it for my 1.7 bud dead presidents slick cut?" - valued at 1.4 - 2 the unu.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22618744 4 days

Dead President's Gentlemen's Ushanka - 1.4-1.5 (~1.4 if using the high end - 90%) - rejected offer. Way above 1.2.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22618744 1 week

Unusual Data Mining Light Miama Nights + Sweets 1.1-1.4 (I don't know how many sweets, - either way this was rejected)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22048875 1 mo

Smoking hustler hallmark + 2 keys 1.4 - 1.6 + 2 keys - 1.4 including 90% off

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22184379 1 mo

Seems to have a similar offre but with 4 keys instead = 1.5, mixed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21766660 1 mo

Miami Nights Snaggle - 1.4 - 1.8 - declined for summer effect.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21552059 1 month

Sold - aces high milkman 1.5 - 1.9 , this fits our 1.4 low end perfectly

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22818260#p59178457 active

Seems to have a 28 key c/o but asking for proof on that. 28 keys = 1.6 buds... could call this an outlier but I'm not raising the high-end

Sold again V

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073442823?time=1411974000 yesterday

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073442823?time=1411887600

Bought for Midnight whirlwind DFD (taunt) 1.3 - 1.8 ~ 1.5 - 90% = 1.35 => 1.4 (you get the point! still higher than 1.2!)

Thanks.

So your 1.4 comes from a taunt sale and high end (1.6) is coming from nowhere.

Also, last suggestion sales are still valid. You can't just ignore them.

Over that....

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22701296 --> 1.3 seller for over 1 week.

High end is unchanged.

1.3 is single sale, read below comment. Quicksell/outlier.

1.4 comes from the whole proof. Read the bolds.

Its not "poorly bumped" I am not sure where you have come up with that conclusion from. Last bumped was 1 hour ago.

So you will ignore the 1.3 seller? It doesn't work like that.

Also, I believe this is going against the unusual suggestion rule...

"Price refreshers are suggestions changing the value of a hat by <5%; changes in values of unusuals by <5% require at least 2 months between suggestions."

What is your definition of poorly bumped? It hasn't been bumped for 15 hours now and is close to the bottom of the search list. Seems you both caught it after it was bumped. Outpost doesn't keep track of how many times it has been bumped and when.

Either way... selling for 1.3 is still higher than 1.2, but suggesting 1.3 based upon this alone is pointless. Therefore, to me, it is an outlier.

Anything more or less over 12 hours are typically considered poorly bumped. When I posted the comment, it was bumped about an hour ago but at the moment the last bumped is more than 15 hours ago, so yes. It is indeed poorly bumped.

However, you are still going against the guidelines rules for unusual. I posted it once and I shall do it again...

"Price refreshers are suggestions changing the value of a hat by <5%; changes in values of unusuals by <5% require at least 2 months between suggestions"

You are barely even changing the price. I don't think this is necessary at all. Just like the guideline rule states, wait at least 2 months. Its just about 1 month since the last suggestion was accepted.

Yeah, seems both you and snowraptor caught it when it got bumped.

Thanks for informing me about the price change rule... if it gets rejected for that, I will wait another month. I felt all the offers being rejected at 1.4 were enough to justify the price change.

Thank you for understanding. ^-^ Up to you, good luck sir! ^_^

The previous suggestion was now 2 months ago.

I may tidy this up a bit and resuggest later, sadly I can't see what the current vote % is so I don't know what people are thinking about this. :(

Proof from last suggestion is still valid and then there's this seller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22701296 - 1.3, 1 week

That's only one seller - consider poorly bumped, b/o changed etc.

Another good proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22184379 Last trade (with v lugermorph)

"for your unusual milkman. i will give you 12 keys, around 6.5 keys in tour of duty tickets, and your choice between a vintage lugermorph, or a bunch of the new limited items"

~1.5 buds

Someone looks like they'll hijack it.

Why downvote?

because he's right

offers don't mean anything

What? Of course they mean something. Don't comment on my suggestions if you have no idea what you're talking about.

your first link's offer is invalid because he ended up selling for something else

your second link's offer is invalid as he sold with milkman + '72 flippin awesome + planets gym rat for bubbling veil + bubbling master yellow belt

your third link sold with steaming charmers for ghosts batter

your fourth link, the dead presidents slick cut is outdated therefore is invalid

your sixth link, the data mining light is lower than 1.4 buds anyways so invalid

your ninth link sold for searing plasma grenadier

your tenth link, aces high milkman is outdated

you didn't even consider all the sales as you just looked for the proof you wanted so you could raise the price of your unusual

"please comment if the proof is valid"

so we're not allowed to comment if we disagree?

thank you for addressing these, here is the counter:

your first link's offer is invalid because he ended up selling for something else <- offer was still higher, offers are valid unless they are retracted

your second link's offer is invalid as he sold with milkman + '72 flippin awesome + planets gym rat for bubbling veil + bubbling master yellow belt <- doesn't matter what he sold it for, he was still offered this pure and rejected the offer because he didn't like it

your third link sold with steaming charmers for ghosts batter <- outlier considering the massive overpay for that batter... can you show me proof of that sale? thats 2 buds he lost at least. either way the pure offer there stands

your fourth link, the dead presidents slick cut is outdated therefore is invalid <- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22972864 1.7 bo http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22977194 31 key bo, can't find many solds.

your sixth link, the data mining light is lower than 1.4 buds anyways so invalid <- okay, fair enough since we don't know sweets

your ninth link sold for searing plasma grenadier <- 1.7 - 2 buds, thanks. - 90% = 1.62 well above range. also 1st gen

your tenth link, aces high milkman is outdated -

mini - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22091804 plenty of offers there, let me list:

"would you do a smoking milkman and a nuts and bolts Pugilist's Protector and a all class hat that is worth 1 key?" = 1 bud + 10 keys + 1 key = 1.65 - 90% = 1.485 buds

"1st offer: 18 TF2 keys+ 3 CSGO keys+ white bills? = 1 bud 9 keys (~1.5)

2nd offer: Unusual KillaWatt Attendant( in my other backpack)"= 1.4 - 1.6 (1.5 - 90% = 1.4)

re. so we're not allowed to comment if we disagree? <- just saying "offers don't mean anything" isn't very constructive

re. "you didn't even consider all the sales as you just looked for the proof you wanted so you could raise the price of your unusual" <- welcome to backpack.tf, enjoy your stay. I looked at the majority which matters. Anyone selling below 1.4 isn't looking very far for offers.

you're saying offers are still valid even when they have already been sold, wut?

you don't understand? the person was offered this, their offer is higher than 1.2 buds, a lot around 1.4, hence this suggestion

what i'm trying to say is that you can't base a price on the offers it receives but the sales that occur as offers could be retracted, fake, contain outdated hats, etc

All those look like genuine offers to me. Retracted offers are normally hidden by the user. Fake offers aren't allowed on outpost. Outdated hats were cleared up above.

offers can't be used as proof if the owner doesn't own those items anymore as it is not possible for that offer to be accepted anymore, e.g. your 1 bud + bills + key is invalid as he doesn't own those items anymore (likewise with some of your other offers)

Okay, so no trades on outpost that have been since completed are valid. Your logic is flawless. His offer wasn't taken so he sold the buds for something else.

Backpack.tf reports on prices. I'm adding to that, reporting on prices being offered and sold.

it's common sense, if someone doesn't own an item anymore but offered it before, that offer becomes retracted as it's no longer possible

The trades were completed before what you are saying happens...

your point is? do you think it's possible to take those offers anymore?

i don't think so

what's your point

the milkmens in question can't be sold either, these are done trades

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23058032 - b/o: 24 keys (1.45 buds) - 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22889784 - b/o: 1.5 buds - 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22701296 - b/o: 1.3 buds - 3 weeks

going to ignore these?

1 day is not long enough

1.5 is greater than 1.4

1.3 is poorly bumped (last bumped: 13 hours ago)

also from 1.5

"The guy above ended up getting his own stormy milkman, probably would've not taken his offer anyways." VV

"got a dead presidents salty dog for the milkman" <- 1.5 - 90% = 1.35 => 1.4 (rounded up)

"also from 1.5

"The guy above ended up getting his own stormy milkman, probably would've not taken his offer anyways." VV

"got a dead presidents salty dog for the milkman" <- 1.5 - 90% = 1.35 => 1.4 (rounded up)"

this has nothing related to your suggestion (offer retracted since already sold)

also, there is a seller of 1.5 buds for the salty dog for 2 months and still unsold

K, fair enough.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119798645?time=1412578800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119798645?time=1412751600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23034287

Looks like it was sold for 1.4-1.8 orb fire barnstormer, can anyone confirm

o.fire barnstormer is outdated

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23073120

sold for dp glasgow + 4 keys = 1.6-1.8 (1.6) + 4 keys - 90 % = 1.6... matches 1.4 - 1.6 range

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23067877

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23072144

Sold for killawatt first blood (check history of hats)

no price on it, can anyone assist

fair enough

~~HE HAS THE HAT PLS REJECT~~

It's been a while since last suggestion which got accepted

sold for 1.1 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23046982

sold for 21 key (1.3buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23058248

sold 21 keys or 1.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23175327

sold 21 keys or 1.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23173492

Quicksells aren't valid proof

link 1 is a quicksell (see http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22909822 )

link 2 is actually listed as a quicksell

link 3 sold for that in less than 15 hours, quicksell

ditto for link 4

but sold > b/o..... if you you need the price up to sell yours.. just you have to say and ok

I'm not selling mine.

they are still quicksells.

you sell one (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23144731) and you want to manipulate the price .. gl.. downvote

2 fail: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5155cf964bd7b86f7a000001 previous attempt

dae price manipulation

fact is your counterproof was invalid.

i don't need a price raise to sell a hat. I sell it at what I want.

If you're going to be rude, get out.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22701296 (1.3 buds) 3 weeks and UNSOLD !!!!!! lol GL

very poorly bumped m8.

I'm sorry that none of your unusual suggestions to raise your BP have gone through, no need to take it out here.

A lot of b/os at 1.5 plus this one at 1.3 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22701296

You also need to apply overpay on item offers. Really not seeing much solid proof to support the high end. Looks like this is closer to 1.3-1.5 to me. Closing since current range is better