Re-suggested like Polar asked. Dang, 80% upvoted on my last suggestion. Welp, 2 keys flat this time. Let's see how it goes. Keeping everything the same.

My first suggestion, hopefully I did this alright.

Some were "quickish"sells, and there is someone who bought one for 1 key. (Said he'd supply proof when I made this)

Solds:

http://imgur.com/BK0DBC7

(sold all parts for 0.11 -> 0.77 + 0.44 in weapons + 0.33 (dueling) + Gold Painted Champ Stamp (2 + 1/2 of paint) = 3.88~, so far that's 5.44

now to continue, V Jarate - 0.22 + Bandana - 1.5 keys (~13 ref) + Gold Jacket (3 + 1.88) = 4.88 ; all this is ~23.52 ref, which becomes, with keys at 8.66, roughly 2.7 keys.

More Solds:

http://i.imgur.com/PcZLqyz.png

Directly for 2 keys.

http://i.imgur.com/rW26z6g.png

Bought it for 2 keys. Hence, the original owner sold it for 2 keys.

http://puu.sh/bTkez/00046d5faf.png - Bought for 2 keys, sold for 2.5 (part of another trade)

http://puu.sh/bTkiH/04b802e750.png - Bought for 1 key + ToD, outlier.

Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22876815 <- 2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22826583 <- 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22878206 <- 2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22888996 <- 2.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22901019 <- above 2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22893600 <- 2.3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22842664 <- 2 keys + 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22905865 <- 2 keys

And too many others to add selling for a flat 2 keys. Some less, but 2 keys flat seems to be where this is at.

And many more on OP. Also, if it matters, steam market price is around 2.25-2.6 keys.

Also, dunno if this will help: http://www.trade.tf/price/30475/11/None