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Fixed the overpay so new suggestion. Thanks to everyone who commented!
I used original values (not suggested) & overpay calculated.
13.2 buds
RA Noble & Beams mountain cap (8-9.5 buds & 6 buds = 14.75 * .9 (overypay since he offered) = 13.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22322917
Definitely an outlier
1 week ago
[Bit complicated!] ~9 buds
Hell Das haz for a Steaming Polar Pullover BUT he didn't value it at the bp.tf price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22560142 --------->
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22562666
He had a b/o of 11/13 buds (doesn't matter) but had offers in that range:
-Cloud 9 Hong Kong (10-11 buds) (10.5) *.9 = 9.45
-Dead Presidents Law (9-13.7 buds) (11.35) *.9 = 10.215
Unclear what he sold it for though.
So I'm taking mid of the offers = 9.8325 buds
A little over the range but closer to the sales below than to the outlier above.
3 weeks ago
Kill-a-Watt Crone's Dome = 10 buds *.9 = 9 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22544996 ------->
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22435382
4 Weeks ago
Haunted Ghosts Modest Pile of Hat (9-11buds = 10 buds) *.9 = 9 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22034182 ----->
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22294229
1 month ago
Cloudy Moon Lucky Shot (8.4-9.5 buds = 8.95 buds) *.9 = 8.055 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21773022 ----->
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21819534
So 2 sales for 9 buds, 1 sale for 8 buds, an outlier of 13 buds, and a self pricer that was slightly over the last sales here.
I think it'd be fair to say the range would be 8 buds - 9 buds.
Let me know if I messed up anywhere!
Previous sales where much higher.
And I had plenty of offers above 10 buds that werent in 3rd gen unusuals.
I paid 7 pure and know that 8 is also a quicksell.
And that modest sale was much different. Haz + 4 buds for the modest. Making it less than 7 buds. An outlier, the guy who sold it to me thought it was worthless because of the no bptf price.
And dont understand the luckyshot trade. The user owned both the moon lucky + HF Haz and sold them both to davy. It wasnt CM lucky for the HF Haz so that isnt even the correct report of the sale
Bucket sold for a Spellbound War Pig+sweet
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21304284
I didn't go further than a month in sale search to keep it current since I thought there was enough sales to negate any after a month.
I couldn't find any evidence for the 4 buds thing you're saying in the modest sale either.
Yea I didn't see the lucky shot thing so I can nix that in a resuggest.
Do you have any proof for 7 pure too that I can post?
I thought sales took priority over offers?
http://gyazo.com/b2fb5031f26f1679269633e3a1913424
I dont see how you have proof of the 8 buds for this range.
The range is honestly too low for the hat. I easily sold the hat for over 13 buds. I got plenty of offers over 10 buds.
You only have the pullover, drones, and my sale.
The lucky isnt even what you say it was, and the modest was easily an outlier.
i aint arguin m8, this suggestion is gunna get taken down, just trying to collect evidence now for a resuggest.
The 8 buds was obviously a mistake as we already agreed on my part with that lucky shot.
Show proof if you sold it for that much and the offers so I can make a resuggestion. Though either the haz + buds for the modest or more 13 bud sales would make it interesting.
Under 7 buds wouldnt make it interesting. It isnt that cheap.
Here's a screenshot of the sale https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-9ykSfVzsrjc/VCQJ8_J8AeI/AAAAAAAAAUQ/hMvEfwU5eoc/s0/2014-09-25_05-26-24.png
I sold the noble in less than an hour for more than 8 buds in pure.
I would argue the pullover was just a quicksell, and we arent sure what it really did happen, I suspect the pullover had to atleast have added.
I would say 10-13 buds is more appropriate. But honestly its better to have it unpriced. I value the haz as 12-14 buds.
Cool thanks, I'll try to work on the new suggestion.