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You are a beautiful being, cashew.
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22954301 - bmoc or 12 keys (young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22925255 - 13 keys (unbumped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22927544 - 15 keys
Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22875386 - 12? had it for a while and lowered price eventually, sold quick after that
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22774886 - 13, went pretty quick also
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22942139 - blizz. crocleather slouch (0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81, 0.81 * 17 = ~14 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22878062 - unclear
This feels too conservative but it works.
2nd sold didnt sell for 13 as it was my trade.
I added 2 keys for a duped searing tricorne, which I then sold for 1 bud pure.
Thanks for clarifying that. :D
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22774886 - didn't actually go for 13 keys pure, added 2 for duped searing tricorne, which was then sold for 1 bud pure
tricorne = 0.9 after overpay
17 x 0.9 = 15.3 = ~15 keys - 2 = 13 keys sale value
Why not just make it a flat 14?
From his past suggestion,
15
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22677255
http://i.imgur.com/47VgNA8.png?1
Somewhat old though
16's not in the range as there's nothing on the market above 15 (unless you wanna count the 20 key seller)
15's still a trading point, and that 15 key sold is still valid, so I'd rather be conservative.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22954301 - closed, bmoc or 12 keys (still in bp)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22925255 - 13 keys, still in bp
With only 1 seller (15 keys) not selling in a set / looking for offers / being stupid, 14-15 still works