Hi,

You are now probably looking at the price range I suggested and thinking that I am a Yet-Another-Person-Making-Stupid-Suggestions. Hold on for a minute. I have reason for this and more importantly I have proofs. These proofs may seem strange to you at first, but again I have reasons for providing exactly them. Please spend a couple of minutes and consider my arguments, I will try to keep the story short.

Part 1: The Problem. As for now, keys are the most popular items that are used for trading and that can be bought at the official market. However, the same approach are used to assign their price. The main problem about it is that very many traders use backpack website as a reference. As a result, any price approved here becomes a reference price in no time. So, if we accept the price of 10 ref, NOBODY will sell keys for 8.66 ref anymore. In a couple of days, all traders will buy keys for 10 ref and sell them for, let us say, 10.5 ref. Then, somebody will gather the statistics and will suggest a price of 10.5 ref for a key. Of course, he well gain enough votes because his proofs will be there: indeed, nobody sells keys under 10.5 ref.

Part 1 in short: keys are just too popular and liquid assets to treat them as all other items. Such an approach works bad for keys.

Part 2: The Solution. First of all, we are trying to estimate the value of keys in refs. They both are currencies, but there is a big difference between them: you cannot buy refs at the official market. That is why we just cannot divide the price of keys by the price of refs. However, we have a price of refs defined as 0.24-0.25 USD. This price has not changed for several months and it seems that everyone is happy with it. So, my solution is to look at the price for which keys are sold outside the official market and then divide it by the current price of refs thereby getting a real price of keys.

Part 2 in short: we can only compare prices of keys and refs if they are sold either inside or outside the same market. Since refs are not sold at the official market, we must find out the price of keys also outside the official market and do so math.

Below I present a list of sellers that sell keys for real money. Prices are in USD and the list contains more than 100 sellers. Using this list, we can calculate that the average price of keys is 1.91 USD. Now, we can compute a proper price of keys:

the high end: 1.91 / 0.24 = 8

the low end: 1.91 / 0.25 = 7.66

------------------------

2,30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671897

2,20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14154644

2,15

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22877911

2,10

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19099148

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10297341

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21611532

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21380446

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19495202

2,02

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18129266

2,00

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22987756

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14791912

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10556678

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22802005

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20903556

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21412761

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22768795

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22760082

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19007469

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14859666

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20490834

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22420021

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22224747

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22976540

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14755329

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21567874

1,95

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22203866

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21091509

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22704965

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18267966

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21338666

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18927548

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22278435

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15353859

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22134777

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23014862

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22899919

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21361945

1,94

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22351624

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22843476

1,93

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22045495

1,92

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22929159

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22373039

1,90

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22376745

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11587868

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23014806

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19237193

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17587257

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22376745

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21525872

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18048046

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23004069

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20277507

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20163085

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22880769

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20201880

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20125821

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20864110

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22878837

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23040144

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21031209

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23019932

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22758021

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22516477

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19382598

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23035244

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22970463

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22384958

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15993564

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22961523

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22992422

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20682338

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22978476

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15118153

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21857532

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22727089

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22166027

1,89

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22490719

1,87

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22585609

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22823185

1,86

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22976256

1,85

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22720198

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15565942

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16566999

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16140132

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22535465

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22271876

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22780788

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22393772

1,80

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22417917

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22622886

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18031633

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19518095

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17588815

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20936909

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20314998

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22413806

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22419057

1,79

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22688362

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19522583

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22877182

1,77

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21721357

1,70

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22709918

1,65

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23039350

1,60

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22977436

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23000765

1,50

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22016879