Price Suggestion
~3550 keys
arcana
Unusual Galvanized Gibus Arcana
57 votes up
18 votes down
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Omg, a white belt, free rep guise!

ALL credit goes to Jacobmeister http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071652927


Here we go!

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074849590?time=1412578800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22959486 - sold for GBH Reggae + Arcana Bonk Boy + TW Danger + GBH Capo's


Reggae = no recent sales

Bonk boy = 22 * 0.9 = ~19.8

Danger** = 3.1 * 0.9 = ~2.8

Capo = no recent sales


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094486293?time=1412406000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22559370 - sold for MN Bear's + Beams Cotton Head + RA Headlight + Flies Muffs


Bear's = 2.85 * 0.9 = ~2.6 (only bearly outdated, shouldn't affect sale value too much)

Cotton** = 12 * 0.9 = ~10.8

Headlight = 4 * 0.9 = ~3.6 (same situation as bear's)

Muffs** = 11.25 * 0.9 = ~10.1

Sale value = 27.3 buds, rounds to 27.


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097645315?time=1410332400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22483065 - sold for Ghosts Ninja Hood + Scorching Baker Boy


Ninja = 22.4 * 0.9 = ~20.1

Baker = 7.5 * 0.9 = ~6.8

Sale value = 26.9 buds, rounds to 27.


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123711658?time=1409986800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22410572 - Sold for duped Burning Anger (unsure about the mentioned phantom)

This looks like an outlier as it's ~20 by itself + it's duped and outdated


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061293463?time=1409468400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22170293 - sold for Arcana Forge + Lantern Bicorne + GF Scout Shako + Beams D'isaster + Planets Bubble + Fountain Rancho + M. Strike Flippin

Seller valued some things that were unpriced here, sale is not ~39 as it says.


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989107593?time=1408863600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21339129 - sold for RA Gibus (34.5 * 0.9 = ~31)

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5433d447ba8d88f4508b4620


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1405753200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21268470 - Sold for Beams Kiss King (28.5 * 0.9 = ~25)

Wasn't outdated at time of sale.


Alright, post-analysis time. 1st sale would possibly be around 30, Reggae has a B/O of 12 on classifieds at least, but there's no proof for it, sadly.


2nd sale is dependent on the Bicorne value for the Cotton Head, but that seems right enough, just for this suggestion.


3rd sale has the Ninja which is priced based off of a gifted outdated PE slug, but really that doesn't seem like that'll affect value too much (there are sales but they're invalid)


4th sale feels like an outlier, clean burning anger by itself was last priced around 20, and tons of duped ones out there.


5th sale is most likely too complicated to try get a value for, but could be around 25-30.


6th sale is fine, RA Gibus is kewl.


7th sale is barely usable, but 25 can't be an outlier, surely.


** = mini-suggestions were done for these


Reggae = no recent sales


Bonk boy = valued @ ~20


Danger:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23060286 - gifted heart brigade helm involved? (unclear)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23045944 - sold with GBH Capo for Bubbling Pullover (pullover = 10.7 * 0.9 = 9.6)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22987212 - unclear

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22894056 - sold for Lantern Nappers (really outdated)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22874502 - sold for MN Modest (3.5 * 0.9 = 3.2)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23071361 - B/O of 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22961800 - " 4

Taking 3 - 3.2


Capo = no recent sales


Bear = valued @ 2.6


Cotton:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22998877 - sold for Burning Bicorne (13.5 * 0.9 = ~12)

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5408104f4dd7b858398b4827 (refer to polar's comment, taking 12-15 (this is just a mini remember)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22849600 - sold for Poisoned Hazmattenhatten (unpriced)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22795273 - sold for GE Thirst (outlier)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23086922 - B/O of 18

Taking 12.


Headlight = valued @ 3.6


Muffs:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22699734 - sold for Heart Falkirk (unpriced)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20402038 - sold for 5 buds + 9 keys + 6 buds in cash = 11.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22699358 - qs'd for 43 keys? (so much for not going lower)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23091849 - B/O of 11

Taking 11 - 11.5.


Ninja:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22560985 - sold for Scorching Mancer + gifted PE Slug (19.5 * 0.9 = 17.6) + (6.7 * 0.8 = 5.36 * 0.9 = 4.8) = 22.4

Slug has no recent usable sales, using gifted value reduction then overpay.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22482934 - sold for T-Warp Front Runner + KaW Bandana (~6, maybe cash involved?)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23018918 - bunch of offers near 23 (although some values are iffy)

Taking 22.4


Baker = valued @ 6.8

dat range tho.

took me the whole afternoon (jk) to read the proofs - upvote