This is my first suggestion, so go easy on me. Constructive feedback would be appreciated. :)

Classifieds at time of posting:http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Rogue%27s%20Robe&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1

1 for 2.66 ref.

1 for 2.77 ref.

5 for 2.88 ref.

The rest are 3 ref. Any higher would be painted.

Sellers at lower than 3 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23081304 2.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23106600 10% discount from bp.tf price, so it's around 2.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23109491 2.77 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23101803 looking for bp.tf price, but is willing to go lower

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23094291 2.88 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22967129 2.88 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22545313 2.88 ref

Unsolds at 3 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23075800 1 day old, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23089387 1 day old, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23015630 6 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23022363 5 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23040328 4 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23022802 5 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22900003 1 week old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23072258 2 days old, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23076033 1 day old, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23071124 2 days old, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23058191 3 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22892964 1 week old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23062197 2 days old, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23017093 6 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23032097 5 days old

Was going to make it as 2.66 - 3 ref, but didn't have enough proof and didn't felt confident enough. Anyway, 3 ref is no longer easy to sell, as you can see (even though some unsolds are poorly bumped), although it's still possible. Even though I think I don't have enough proof, it wouldn't hurt to try.