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4th time the charm?
I'd like to thank Mr. Bucket and ApothicЯ [⇌] for their input.
Sale #1
-From Mooz. Sold for a Burning Bandana and a GE Attendant.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21029825
-Mini on the GE attendant. A lot of ambigous sales, this is the only one that works. Sold for a Harvest Bonnet http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21377770(5.1 buds after overpay)
15.6 + 5.1 = 20.7 => ~21
Sale #2
-Sold then to Randombrother for a Scorching HWNN. Mozz added a Vivid and Ghost Stash.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22113963 http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2898718624,631,5
Mini on the Vivid Stash. Once again, other sales are outdated or sold to people with private backpacks so a sale can't be determined.
GE Rack (13 after overpay) and Vivid Stash httphttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22092226 were sold for a Burning Rack (19.5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22900526. This makes the Stash at 6.5 buds. The Stash sale seems like a major outlier. After talking with Bucket, he suggested I use offers. Most of them are getting over 9 buds in offers. They include: Purple Energy Company Man and Vintage Lugermorph, Clean pe stahl + 1 pure, and a haunted ghosts company man + 2 buds in keys/buds. So, Most offers are ranging at over 9, so 9.5 for the stash is appropriate.
Valuing the Vivid Stash at 8.6 , the Ghost Stash at 12.87 after overpay and the HWNN at 46. This makes the Conq at around 24.63 (Which would be ~22 after overpay).
Sale #3 (Outlier)
-Then it sold to Imp for a Searing Team Captain http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2934027629,378,5
Mini on the Duped Searing Plasma TC sale:
Sold for a Hearts Attendant (~5) + Ghost Rack (9) + Vintage Conch (1.9) Totals to 16 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22324020 + http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22287462 for the TC http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22531297
This 16 bud sale is an outlier.
Sale #4
-Sold then to Micheal for a Scorching Pyromancer and a Chiroptera Venenata MerryWeather.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22274747
Mini Suggestion on the Merry. Sold for a Sulp Tyrant. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22094288 => http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22457661
Sulp Tyrant is upriced and ended up selling for 5 buds: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22471213
So the Merry would be 5 times 0.9 which is 4.5.
Valuing the Pyromancer at 17.5 after overpay and the MerryWeather at 4.5 after overpay leads to valuing the Conq at 22
Sale #5 (disregarding)
-Sold then to Eggo for a C9 Antlers + ?.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22825297
Sale wasn't clear was I Micheal refused my 1:1 with a C9 Antlers. So I assume something was being added here. Disregarding this sale.
So I'm settling at a range of 21-22 buds.
Comments and suggestions appreciated!
Markets been surprising me all damn day.
Certain hats are more expensive than I ever thought they would be
While other hats I thought would be expensive are cheap, weird world we live in.
Yep, it's all on taste and opinion. I find this hat extremely appealing, while others disagree. Another factor affecting the value is that it's 1 of 1 making it easier to control a price when it's up on a market.
Why not low end at 20.7 then ?
rounded
Prices on backpack.tf are guide prices, so rounding up 0.3 is fine-gives a cleaner range.
did you apply overpay?
Yes, I applied overpay.
looks good
Sale #1 is just too old to use. Almost 4 months old now
Sale #2 is just too complex to use. HWNN is outdated. There has been one recent sale for it, and it was sold for a value of 39 - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005858185?time=1412060400. That would put this at 17.5. Huge difference.
Sale #3 you are counting at 16.
Sale #4 involves a duped scorching mancer which is probably closer to 16 after overpay instead of 17.5 (it will need a mini). That sale would be closer to 20.5.
Sale #5 was 1:1 with a C9 antlers - price is the pre-misc price.
Sale #6 is what you bought it for, which seems to be under 15 pure.
So I'm seeing sales at <15, 16, 17.5, 20.5. Not really enough information here. The duped scorching mancer will need a mini. And the C9 antlers could use a suggestion. If you can do those two, you will have for sure 3 solid sales (not counting that complex HWNN sale) which will be much more helpful in identifying the range here.