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Sale #1: Sold for a Sunbeams Sola Topi + Strange Killstreak Machina w/parts + Strange Veil
3 + (18/17) + (4/17) = 4.3 buds
Seller: http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198137922081
Buyer: http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198050603794
http://i.imgur.com/6eSv4EV.png
Sale #2: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21894050
Sold for 4.7 buds pure when buds were 20 keys
(20/17) x 4.7 = 5.5 buds by todays standard.
I added the buyer and their confirmation: http://i.imgur.com/vvgJoUd.png
Sale #3: Sold for a Something Burning This Way Comes Crocleather Slouch + 5 keys
3.6 + (5/17) = 3.9 buds
Backpack Before Sale: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050603794?time=1411282800
Backpack After Sale: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050603794?time=1411455600
Offers: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22789340
Orbiting Fire Drill + N&B Rack
(1.9 x .9) + (2 x .9) = 3.51 bud offer
Cloud 9 Tartan Tyrolean
(4.1 x .9) = 3.7 bud offer rejected
Sunbeams Panama
(3.8 buds x .9) = 3.4 bud offer rejected
Offers: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21927006
4.6 buds
Haunted Ghosts Tree
(3.7 X .9) = 3.3 bud offer rejected
Offered a Sunbeams Panama (see above) rejected
Offered a Tartan Tyrolean ( see above) rejected
Summary: All offers under 4 buds have been rejected recently except for an outlier sale @ 3.9 buds. The 5.5 bud sale and 4.3 bud sale as well as an offer of 4.6 buds pure listed on a current trade create a range of 4.3-5.5.
Lol you can't value sale #2 that weird way. You must use original prices that were at the time of trade without any "todays standard". Sale #2 must be valued at 4.7
In polar's "Unusual Price Suggestion Guide - the Cheat Sheet" on the forums in Part 4, there is a section called "The values of items in a trade should be the "value" of the item at the time of the trade. He says "To the best of your ability, try to use the "value" of the item at the time of the sale." Since buds were 20 keys at the time of the sale and are currently 17, that sale would be worth more then 4.7 buds in todays market.
I guess you're loosing the point of this quote.
"To the best of your ability, try to use the "value" of the item at the time of the sale."