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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23165471 - 4 keys 4 ref = 4.4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23165403 - 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22704135 - 5 keys (3 weeks, bumped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20163589 - Bp.tf price = 5 keys (4 months, bumped)
SOLDS:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23163647 - 4 keys, quite quick
While the 4.4 seller is young, the 5 key sellers are old, showing that 5 keys is too high a price
Conservative Drop
The one at 4,4 seems to sold within an hour, i.e. quicksell. Current price seems fine.