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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23014496 - 14 keys (1 week, bumped)
says he would have accepted 10 keys, but since it hasn't sold, he may have changed his mind
has been selling for much longer:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22839876
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22758997 - failed at 1 bud
Your first "being sold for much longer" is by the same guy as the 1 week bumped trade so it's technically it's been 2 weeks unsold. That supports the price drop.
This is not legit, the only proof is a single trade by a guy quickselling for random keys
quickselling for 1 week and still unsold is valid proof