By 'sort it out', I mean the only priced effect on the lid is Nuts :3

SALES:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22060576 Sold for Electro Crone's (11)

11 * 0.9 = 9.9

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3000213805,30425,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2990793467,920,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22800753 Sold for Aces Mohawk (Unpriced, mini at 4.55)

4.55 * 0.9 = 4.095 (rounding to 4.1)

Histories;

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3000213805,30425,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3000746047,30413,5

Mohawk mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22971634 Sold for Searing Tossle (4.2) + sweets (~0.3)

4.5 * 0.9 = 4.05 (rounding to 4.1)

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3066372630,30413,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3032612180,150,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22984531 Sold for 5.3 pure + SF Pro KS Holy Mackerel (Avg. Price ~$20, =0.66 buds)

http://puu.sh/cfUNj/5f6d2db9ab.png

(0.66 * 0.9) + 5.3 = 5.894 - outlier

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3066372630,30413,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23032670

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23166242 B/O of 5 (2 days)

Using 4.1-5.

So, 9.9 and 4.1. Which is the outlier?

Well, the current one on the market, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22804434 , has been offered:

Flies Bomber (~7.2 after overpay) and a Miami TC (~6.5 after overpay) So it's fair to say 4.1 is an outlier.

Let it ride.