Suggestion: Miami Nights Tipped Lid at 172.05–201.5 keys

Price Suggestion

~30 keys

miami

73 votes up

27 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Fri, 07 Nov 14 23:04:24 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Counter-suggestion, since a current trade just cleared and proves the other range is completely wrong.

My Evidence

Sold #1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23224364 - Blizzardy Storm Version + Sweets (11.1 Buds)

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057160393?time=1413702000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057160393?time=1413788400#

Sold #2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22886179 - Sold for a Stormy Storm Galvanized Gibus (6.55 > 6.6 Buds)

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108170622?time=1413442800

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108170622?time=1413529200

***Possibly can be considered an outlier, since the other trade was considered a possible quick sale.

Current Seller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23264782 - 12 Buds - Very Young

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Kollin's Evidence

Sale #1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23203380 - Sold for a Green Blck Hole Wet Works + Gifted Stormy Storm Dragonborn Helmet

Proof: http://imgur.com/eKBy9lW

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057160393?time=1413529200

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057160393

GBH Wet Works = 6.55 * .9 = 5.9 + 1.8 Buds.

SS Dragonborn = 1.8 * 20% = 1.44 Buds. Rounding to 1.4.

Total: 5.9 + 1.3 = 7.2 Buds.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5445988db88d883f3e8b4adf - Wet Works Suggestion.

***Sold within' 24 hours. Can be considered an outlier.

Sale #2

(See above)

Sale #3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22845202 - 13 Buds

(Check the Comments of the Trade)

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Conclusion / Argument

I don't feel any just for the range to be way lower than 10 buds on this unusual at all. Compared to other unusual prices of this hat, the current sold trend of this unusual, how this unusual effect tiers on the price, and the obvious quick sells (which are somehow being recognized as a sold), there is no possible way a range of 5.9~7.2 can be established on the hat and suggested for a higher range. Hence, 11.1~13 buds seems a better fit range.

The 'other unusual prices on this hat'? Kollin's suggestion puts it above TWatt, don't see the issue.

The range is ridiculously high based on past B/Os.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23203380 B/O of 9

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22886179 B/O of 8

Plus your basing your high-end on 'my friend told me it sold for this'? Really?

And, you can't quicksell for unusuals. Thus flies in the face of the meaning of quicksell.

However, if he's saying "Oh, that's an outlier and this is an outlier" and not really taking considering of updating the proof, then it causes issues. Especially with the buyout being pretty high, compared to the other suggestion's range.

I'll probably resuggest and drop the range to 9~11 or make it 11 flat, because that seems more sense than the 13. I've tried contacting that person about the 13 sale and see if I can get any evidence, but all I've heard was crickets from him. Besides, I don't know why the previous suggester even mentioned that, if that could be considered a "he said, she said" thing and totally throw off the proof.

Kollin's original suggestion was ~9-11, There's still no decent justification for it.

You can't quicksell for unusuals. You can sell quickly, but that's not a quicksell, and doesn't invalidate the sale as evidence.

Actually, his original was 9.5~13 with the mention of a Scorching Flames Thirst Blood.

He never made a mini for it and I'm assuming he walked away from it. I'll take a look at it and see what sticks.

Only thing I can find from the suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54434a28b88d8820598b4c99

***Credit to Jacobmeister on the proof***

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22845202 - Sold for MN Tipped Lid, Bubbling Pullover, AF Juju

Tipped Lid = 13 * 0.9 = 11.7

Pullover = 10.7 * 0.9 = 9.6

Juju = 10.8 * 0.9 = 9.7

Sale value = 31 buds

Note: Can't track down anything for the MN Lid but apparently it sold for 13 pure as noted in the trade.

Juju mini:

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/22802462 - sold for Demonflame Bubble Pipe (12 * 0.9 = 10.8)

http://www.tf2outpos.../trade/21408324 - sold for TW Cowl (unpriced)

Even though the range being suggested is 9~11.5, someone got a huge payoff for that thing.

Alright, then you have proof for 13.

What you don't have, however, is proof it isn't an outlier.

Current seller for 12 buds and one of the other range's suggestion sold's sold within' 24 hours and had a notably higher offer.

Yeah. That selleer is proof it's an outlier.

The B/O at 9 and 8 suggest 11 is also an outlier.

You can't quicksell for unusuals, for the third time.

And, that 'higher offer' is clearly a highball, look at it. Two mid-ish robo hats worth 11 buds? Please.

Who knows? Some people are dumb enough to fall for the buyout.

And I'm just saying how fast the sell of that 7.8 was seems suspicious. The 6.6 is fine, but the 7.8 went pretty quick.

And the other hats (with lower tiers and normally lower-priced than Miami Nights) are going about 9~10 buds.

Terror-watt is priced at 5.7. Comparisons are not a valid reasoning for pricing. We don't do tiers.

Nothing is suspicious about that trade.

Eh. I think we better leave it for the moderators to decide on this, because we're getting heavy into speculation.

You are the only one speculating ;_;

I know I'm speculating, but it is going back and forth into that speculation and we just need to stop. :C

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22826492 - hmmm i got offered this on my c.moon tree.. Didnt know it was worth this much..

i would like more evidence of that 13 bud sale.. and i think it is an outlier.

Person has a Disco Beat Down, not a Miami Night's version.

And I'm going to take insight into that 13 bud sale. Even though it is a tad suspicious, I do think there is some legitimacy to it.

oh yeah its disco not Miami hahaha my bad, and thanks for looking into it

Yeah. I can understand the mix-up between the two and I forgive you for that.

Er your Stromy Gibbus sale kind of proves your range wrong. Had a B/O of 8 buds for 3 weeks before finally selling for the Gibbus so I'm not sure where you're getting the "sold within 24 hours" part.

I think I need to sleep and I think you need to chill. I had them mixed up.

The one with the wet works was supposed to be identified as the quick sold and the gibus was suppose to be outlier, because of it.

12 Bud Seller Haven't Sold His, I Think The 13 Bud Sell Was A Outlier.

Starting to; however, the price cannot be determined, because of the two major differences in prices.

Both ranges are suggesting something and may need to provoke a new suggestion, once a new sold has come around.

He Hasn't Even Receive Any Offers Above 8 Buds After The 1st Offer, However It Appears He Offered It On This Trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23524787

okay. full list of sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23224364 - not sure how you are counting overpay, but all those painted items, stranges with parts definitely need overpay. I'm getting that sale as closer to ~10.5 after overpay. 9 on the blizz lid + 1.5 in items (counting the pro shotty at 6 and spec at ~2.5 keys from SCM prices).

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22886179 - took 3 weeks to sell for a stormy gibus + 6 keys ~6.3

I have no idea where the 13 sale is coming from. Unless there is one in a private bp, there are no other sales for this hat. That will need to be documented to include that in the range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23203380 - sale at 7.5 (wetworks was formally suggested and has a slightly different price from the one used)

Three sales here are 6.3, 7.5, and 10.5. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22886179 - given this had a sitting b/o of 8 for almost a month, I'm inclined to call the 10.5 sale an outlier here. But probably best to wait for another sale to see which way this goes since 10.5 is the most recent sale.