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Whoops wrong hat :P
Not a very old price but its still a bit overpriced.
Steaming Kabuto
New price: 1-1.3 buds.
[proof below]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23200988
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23220547
1:1 PC Defiant = 1.1 buds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23200988
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23043435
1:1 GC Defiant = 1.3 buds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21805114
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21968521
S. Machinima (1) + Kabuto (?) for SS Tyrant (2) = 1 bud.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22803021
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22975159
O. Fire CM (offered no overpay) 1.8 + 0.3 in sweets = outlier.
First sale is wrong. I added around 5 keys in sweets to the Defiant, which makes it 1.6 buds in total. Yet he offered so no overpay here.
In second sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22784257 - More sweets were added and at least a Gold Botkiller Rocket Launcher Mk.II (3 keys) was added.
And the third sale, the Machina was priced at 1.3 buds (after that, it dropped some more keys). We take the value of the Machina when the sale happened, which was more than 1 bud.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/540fe485b98d88c37c8b45ab
According to aaron, it will be 2.2 * 0.9 - 1.3 buds = 2 buds - 1.3 buds = 0.7 buds, which is outlier.
Even that, sales from the old suggestion is still usable, you have to use it.
So I guess the whole suggestion is wrong.