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4 months old, might as well update it
Sale #1:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22051088[/url]
Sold for killstreak S. Machina w/ parts and killstreak S. festive minigun with parts (1 month ago)
Trade of the items he recieved: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22802056[/url]
S. Machina = 15.5 keys
Parts = 6.66 ref (~2/3 key)
Killstreak = 3.88 ref (~1/3 key, converted from scm)
S. Festive Minigun = 16 keys
Killstreak = 1.66 (~1/6 key, converted from scm)
Parts = ~1 key
Total paid = 33 2/3 keys * 0.9 overpay = 30.3 keys = 1.89... buds rounded to 1.9 buds with overpay.
Sale #2:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22519038[/url]
Sold for 2.5 buds pure (2 weeks ago)
The offer (made by the current owner) appears as C/O in the trade notes as well as appearing in offer form at the bottom of the trade.
Total paid = 2.5 earbuds pure.
Sale #3:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23116157[/url]
Sold for a Blizz. Storm Le Party Phantom + lvl 69 gifted v. camera beard + gifted genuine merc's pride scarf + haunted Sir Hootsalot + unique Modest Pile of Hat (1 week ago)
Phantom = 1.8 earbuds (not outdated)
V. Camera Beard = 1.33 refined
G. Scarf = There are no gifted ones anywhere, so all I can really do is guess at the price. 3 keys?
Sir Hootsalot = 3 refined
Modest = 1.66 refined
Total paid = 1.8 buds + 3 keys + 5 refined = 1.8 buds + 3.5 keys = 2.01... buds * 0.9 for overpay = 1.81... buds rounded to 1.8 earbuds after overpay.
Supporting offers:
#1
Same trade as above
Offered 32 keys pure (1 week ago).
32/16.25 (price of earbuds at the time) = 1.969... earbuds rounded to 2 earbuds pure.
#2
Same trade as above
Offered KaW Infernal Impaler (1 week ago)
Backpack.tf price of 3 buds (not outdated)
3.0 * 0.9 = 2.7 earbuds after overpay (I know it isn't a sale, but it's very close to the high value sale price, and another offer supports it farther down)
#3
Same trade as above
Offered Knifestorm Respectless Rubber Glove
Backpack.tf price of 2.4 earbuds (not outdated)
2.4 * 0.9 = 2.16 earbuds after overpay.
#4
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22670797[/url]
Offered C9 Samur-Eye (1 month ago)
Backpack.tf price of 2.7 earbuds (not outdated)
2.7 * 0.9 = 2.43 earbuds after overpay.
#5
Same trade as above
Offered Miami Nights Sammy Cap (3 weeks ago)
Backpack.tf price of 2 earbuds
2.0 * 0.9 = 1.8 earbuds after overpay
#6
Same trade as above
Offered Overclocked Industrial Festivizer + 17 keys pure (3 weeks ago)
Festivizer = 1.5 earbuds (not outdated)
1.5 * 0.9 = 1.35 earbuds
17/16.75 (earbud price as the time) = 1.01... earbuds rounded to 1 earbud
1.35 + 1 = 2.35 earbuds mixed after overpay.
#7
Same trade as above
Offered Stormy Storm Thirst Blood
Backpack.tf price of 2.1 earbuds (priced very recently)
2.1 * 0.9 = 1.89 earbuds after overpay.
#8
Same trade as above
Offered Aces High Das Gutenkuttenharen + Bubbling L'Inspecteur (2 days ago)
Gutenkuttenharen = 2.1 earbuds
L'Inspecteur = 14 keys or 0.875 earbuds
2.1 + 0.875 = 2.975 * 0.9 = 2.67... earbuds rounded to 2.7 earbuds after overpay.
#9
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22520657[/url]
Offered 2.3 buds pure (1 month ago)
#10
Same trade as above
Offered Miami Attendant + 5 keys (1 month ago)
Attendant = 3.2 buds (not outdated)
5/17 (earbud price at the time) = 0.29... earbuds rounded to 0.3 earbuds
3.2 * 0.9 = 2.88 + 0.3 = 3.18 earbuds (outlier)
There are so many more offers I can include if somehow this isn't enough.
I've got 2 sales and 2-3 offers supporting my low end; 1 sale, 2-3 offers, and an outlier supporting my high end (outlier shows that people will pay that high); and 3-5 offers supporting the range in the middle. No outdated unusual prices and only one weird item I had to guess on.
*shrugs* Seems legit to me.
Spartan was offered on phantom, no overpay needs to be applied to that sale, so your low end is wrong.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22688717
Also, its a little weird that the two unusual sales are so much lower than the two pure sales. Generally speaking, its the other way around. I personally would be inclined to price this hat at 2.5 - 3.3.
Also also, you're setting your high end off a declined offer, which pretty clearly means you're under pricing it, especially with the pure sales you have around that range and higher.
Beyond the concerns here. I know for a fact I'd happily buy a ghosts Spartan for 2 buds in order to flip. After a bit of poking around, it appears I'm not the only one alone on that.
Standing quickbuyers above low range, all in pure:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23300327 (2 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23359996 (1.9 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23372719 (1.9 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22407465 - 3.3 pure
not sure about range here. maybe need a bump.
Just like the 3.18 earbud offer, I think this is an outlier. There is nothing between 2.7 and 3.2-3.3 that I've found, so I'm not gonna include it in the range.
... so much proof.
As for the two 3+ bud sales, I feel like they're outliers and the proof you've provided is enough.
Upvote, jesus.
The only reason there isn't more proof is because I got bored and had HW to do. I s'pose I did enough to get it passed though.
what are you basing your high end on?