Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 9.66 ref

Conclusion: 9.66 is clearly most common trading point. 9.33, even happens a lot, is QS. 9.66 above is simply outlier and doesn't happen a lot. And yes, I have sold my soul to devils.

Feel free to counter / support my proofs.

Thank Mr.Giang

I was thinking to writing "Thank you mr giang" but everyone did it before me

I think this suggestion is better than the other one, upvote. :)

We Forgive you Giang, Somebody has to do it.

"Don't shoot the messenger."

thanks mr giang

and I had a plan to buy 1 bud for 151 refined..

Upvote.

Ty based giang.

Up vote! :3

You had awesome amount of sold's at 10 refined. It seems it does not sell very well... wait it does sell, look at my suggestion ;)

If this is not cherry picking, I don't know what is! Good luck bro!

Counter to your counter:

After being able to sell for 10 refs, I did revise current situation at the market. Her is my conclusions.

PROOF SECTION

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23219763

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23389611

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23329865

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23253842

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23348443

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23376710

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23331964

10.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23376225 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23089551

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23369584

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22855613

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23355384

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1075784 // has solds

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1078051 // has solds

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1080015 // has solds

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1083767

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1082434

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1082671

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1080955

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1083585

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1082325

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1079287

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23360304 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23344506 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23342395 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23329018 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23369391 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23378150 // has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23026011 // probably has solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23357769 // green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23375549

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23352765

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23118716

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23358935

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23372257

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23029389

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23375526

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23375453

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23362812

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373566

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23376708

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23352775

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371639

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23306620

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23381072

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23343485

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23379381

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361470

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23380397

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23372888

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23355266

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23286356

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23293405

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23381657

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23369180

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373683

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23370111

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382160

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23356862

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373465

9.88

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1083882

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23061843 // has green tick, not sure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23204360 // has some solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23340722

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23374947

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23303992

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23380095

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373558

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23344223

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23380173

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382142

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23380456

9.77

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23317645 // has green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23321922 // has green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23377978

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23389879

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23293608

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23365864

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23379681

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23378938

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23363475

9.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23360080

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23357789

9.55

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23374554

Solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23069261

10.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23375246

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23384473

http://s9.postimg.org/mx50im7hb/Untitled.png // My solds

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1082944

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1076468

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23304015 // sells some more

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23350208 // sells some more

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23311384

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23359878

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361214

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371740

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23350630

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23334037

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23236626

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23367881

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23374654

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23377896

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23175757

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23250599

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23233702

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23338836

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23178018 // 1 week old

9.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23126549

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23317854

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23350342

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23343624

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22972288

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22891308

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22633231

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23259665

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23366903 // 1 got sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23063916 // 2 weeks old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382647 // sells some more

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23247525 // sells some more

9.77

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23353815

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23376622

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23344579

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23328098

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23369187 // 1 got sold

9.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23360251

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23370941

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23368441

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23357876

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23384029

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23337599

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23389972

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23378889

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23370897

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23381609

9.55

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23306910

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371388

9.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382305

bp.tf price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23362484

Unsolds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23170143 // 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23223834 // 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23313912 // 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23369298 // closed

9.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23378525 // closed

9.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23105584 // irregulary bumped

??????????????????????????????????????????????????

SUPPORT PROOF SECTION

BUY REQUESTS

9.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23200328 // has green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23377203 // has green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20867153 // has green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23368709 // closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22987505 // closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23084671 // closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382902 // closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382753 // closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23368651 // closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23363254

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23291326

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382904

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23357210

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23356848

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23228680

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23074435

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22987993

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23351496

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23365606

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23357191

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23374963

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23367141

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23364852

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23368696

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373499

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23330172

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23325771

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23352606

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23270869

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23192419

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22579962

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23288392

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23359402

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23213029

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23360753

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23352386

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23340005

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23339098

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23336008

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23333695

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23191373

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22967946

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22667531

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22449774

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23254069

9.77

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22440951 // has green tick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19200400 // has green tick, old thread

BOTTOM LINE

??????????????????????????????????????????????????

» Proof covers 1 day in outpost and auto-trades in bazaar.

» Tons of sellers asking for 10 refined

» Tons of buyers asking for 9.66

» As demanded currency, it has it's extremes in both directions

» Tons of solds in 9.66-10ref range.

» Key rise will not crash economy as demand will decline and this will eventually go down.

» Demand combined with hype made it possible

? Suggested range 9.66-10 refined per key,

As I stated, those are every sales in last 13 hours. Compare to the large amount of sales at 9.33 and 9.66 that you don't even show (who is cherry-picking proofs now?), 10-ref is clearly outliers. And yet, it's only in last 13 hours. Just imagine the amount of sales I can find in last 2 days, we will see how small your 10-ref sales are.

Did you ever read my last comment? Okay, i will repost just for You ;)

Well, supply is available for 9.66. Everything below is quick-sell. Why? About anyone can buy (and does so) keys for your listed prices and about instantly "cash out" for refs. I believe this is not valid pricing methodology and makes no sense.

According to you, we should "inform" people that it's "fine" to sell below quick-buy price (tons of proof that people buy's for 9.66).

If that's fine by you - congratulations!

By reading it, I know that 9.33 is QS and 9.66 is most common trading point. And again, with amount of sales at 9.66, 10-ref is outlier.

How many times do I have to tell you this again?

Okay. Sorry for insulting you. That was kinda extreme reaction - not smart of me. I guess you've got somewhat right about keys selling for lower than mine range. I respect your work and want to get some proper recognition of mine too. About everything happened here - If You believe my sold's above your range is invalid and community agrees, we should stop right there.

I don't agree with your range and I believe you excluded some sold's provided in my page. If my logic of quick-buyers is invalid, so be it. Only thing i would urge you to do, if make any claims regarding my suggestion thread, then at least add your arguments "why" combined with such a claim.

The way you provided "fake" 10ref sods of mine was inappropriate and shoul've included argumentation BEFORE making me do counter-argumentation. I still can't see why mentioned solds cannot be considered as legit ones?

I won't close my thread and leave it for community to decide which argumentation fits it's needs the best.

And again, sorry if I did insult you in any way, I am here for constructive dialogue. I do acknowledge i kinda failed to do this at some point.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23304015 - Comment: No one will buy your keys. No proofs of sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23350208 - No proofs of sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23311384 - k

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23359878 - k

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361214 - No proofs of sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371740 - No proofs of sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23367881 - No proofs of sale.

2 out of 7 your proofs is valid, well, gg to the rest. I still fail to see how 10-ref can be most common trading point.

Are you implying everything is up on my head, i have no sold and things You skip can be justified than this i "skipped".

So you say I got proof for 1 sold, right? :D:D:D

Dude, check ALL my links, tell me how much sold's there are, then we can talk. Even now you do cherry-picking...

btw. You can't make conclusions of current trading point, by ignoring solds i provided, for that being said, it is cherry picking

With 5 out of 7 first links being invalid, I have lost my trust on you and will assume that the rest are just as horrible as them.

And before accusing me of cherry-picking proofs, why don't you look at yourself? You basically ignore every sales at lower price, half of your proofs are sellers, even your solds are not real sold! You are not only cherry-picking proofs but you also fakes proofs. How horrible you are.

Not going to take this arguement further with you as this will turn into flamewar soon.

About your argument on links

3rd key sold, check history

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23304015

2 and up key in row got sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23350208

is sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23311384

is sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23359878

second, third key, check history

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361214

check history

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371740

check history

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23367881

YOU'RE A BIG LIE, YOU NOW THAT, YOU SHOULD GET WARNED OR BANNED

Keys work as currency items, which means a lot of time it can be traded without being actually sold for refined (or it can be sold on SCM). Without seeing some real ref after the trade, I'm not convinced.

Oh, that classic "YOU'RE A BIG LIE, YOU NOW THAT, YOU SHOULD GET WARNED OR BANNED", how cute.

With your actions of falsifely acusing me of "invalid" proof, you made your point and your intentions quite clear. Good luck of this get accepted ;)

LOL how does you imply your proof is more sufficient than mine? You intentionally mislead people acusing as "not convincing" at the same doing the same. Thing you say, the process of gathering proof is invalid, you're miserable

They are still invalid. I don't see any magnificent amount of ref after the trade => Faked proofs.

Done with you. Not being cocky here but you will need more than luck to get your suggestion accepted.

You can take this as your win since I'm done with you, You won. Your proofs are perfect and outstanding, I shouldn't complain anything about it. Happy now?

Show me backpacks of these users that does not have refs please? Or you're just pointing out that you "feel" there is no one. Also trade history is not legit. Right. So you have analysed all your sold's/sellers backpack patterns to see if they are legit? Your'e quite a genius I must say!

I'll help

Backpacks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/366885

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/701424

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/442700

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/639958

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/656020

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/744407

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/771212

I have explained everything to you before, you refused to listen to me. Did you see who was right and wrong with the explanation I gave on your last suggestion? There is your answer to everything. Also, whats up with threatening (to get her banned and all) and insulting Giang? Be mature and try to have a civil discussion here.

With all that said, good luck to both.

Nothing you explained justifies this nonsense he's throwing on me without proper argumentation. He argues i don't have valid sold's - no refs in bp? There is refs. There is mark in item history. It's pure nonsense. I won't accept crap throwed like that! If mod's are fine with that, okay. It's up to community to decide, i see large bull#it here... Range maybe is arguable but not with arguments like his. He ignores trades. He claims there is 4 valid 10 ref solds. If you feel it's okay, I am really sorry for you.

Duablo you're digging you're own grave

Okay, now it really seems as a corrupt community if this goes by. I had quite a few sold's above his value. Argument "refs are not in bp" does not hold on. I never tried to insult or mislead people on this case, all i did was an research, made according to item history data. If this is not valid, i don't know what is.

The way you explained there is "no proof" was absurd. You did mentioned nothing on that it has history records, you even did not bother to explain your version which i seem quite absurd. You just implied "no proof". At the first.

Of course there might be some flaws on how we gather proof, but i don't believe it is right to use such tecniques you're using with this kind of argumentation. I am okay if somebody else chooses range, but now you're just ignoring that large job i did implying it's fake. You ignore my arguments, saying "It does not matter". I tried to understand, but I guess failed. I won't support your suggestion, but I would wish you luck. It's not my final word to be taken, nothing personal, you just seem to ignore my point of view and ignore my proof. That being said, it's not my call to make

» One of your argument was about my trades at 10 ref as illegitimate. You were implying that some of links you selected had no indication/proof of actual sale. You also implied that their backpack content somehow indicates this.

I did sort them out a little. Your links indeed are good as a matter of solds. Some of my links certanly lacks refined in backpack, maybe it's not convenient way to call them solds.

Revised solds

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1075784

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1078051

http://bazaar.tf/trade/1080015

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23358935 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23352775 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23379381 // no key, appears to be sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23373683 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23395827 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23375549 // has refs

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371639 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23381072 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382160 // has refs / no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23329018 // has refs

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23378150 // has some refs

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23357769 // has some refs

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23350208 // refs in bp, no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23311384 // refs in bp, no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23371740 // refs in bp, no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23367881 // refs in bp, no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23374654 // refs in bp, no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23175757 // refs in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23250599 // has comments,

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23338836 // refs in bp

9.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23317854 // refs in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382647 // refs in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22972288 // refs in bp, comments

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23126549 // refs in bp, no keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22891308 // refs in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23317854 // refs in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23382647 // refs in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23247525 // has comment

Now, after reconsidering some of my proof and what you said. I do see why you turned it down at some scale.

I've got my lesson and I believe i owe you an apology xD

I would like to get comment on this,

»is this kind of proof okay?

»does buy requests does matter at all or as it seems - it doesn't?

As a matter, you had some minor error too:

9.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23389579 // has sold, but no refs

--------------------------------------------------------

Again, I acknowledge my fault after revising my links. Some of them might be unconvincing. I will try to improve their quality in future. However, i do feel i still have enough solds to keep this matter under consideration.

LOL

Now whit 9.66 ref you have only 1 key, 2 year later you can have like 4key~

before*

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23309955#latest

Sold my key for 9.77 within like 2 hours. Perhaps I was lucky.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1

Also alot of sellers here below 10 ref so I dont think its time to put 10 ref in the range yet.

Upvote!

Yay, a little percentage of tf2 players wants to buy keys really fast. So now it's apparently enough proof to raise the price again...

Try to compare sales with the old price and the new price.

This has always annoyed me. People list up relatively few trades when it comes to keys. Of course you will always find someone buying at a ridiculous price and that will farm enough proof. But the other 90% of tf2 traders won't buy them for that price.

People say keys go up as ref go down. Ref rarely goes down, but there is a price suggestion for keys every second day. How is there a connection then?

Ref is going down every time keys rise. We just don't have enough proofs to update it on backpack.tf.

9.66. Bro make it 10 refs. 9.66 is quicksell

wow this is getting fucking annoying remove bp.tf

~~inb4 whiners~~

Have fun checking tons of trades to see what things are going for, then.

In fairness, that's what you should be doing as well as checking backpack.tf - how would prices fluctuate otherwise? :)

Cant remove bp.tf, but u can ask for a ban :3

Keys are going up great...but thats none of my bussines since i buy keys for cash

#roadto10ref

Make it happen.

okay so if anybody already see this i posted it on collectors yer suggsetion hope i will get ban and this site will get rekt cuz it suck!!!!!!!!!!

wtf u kidding me didn't u know that tf2outpost is full of lowballers u should look at those trades wihich sell the yer not the one's who buy the yer ... sorry admins ban me i don't give a fuck and this site ruins whole tf2 traiding peaple can't make good prices theirselfs :/ without this site key would still be like 3 ref or something not fucking 9 oh wait it's no even 9 anymore it's almost 10 oh god the price flies i still remember when key was 6 ref i cried about it, but now ... and wtf who made this proof thingy i am dead serious that it sux so hard, u can't find a good trade in tf2outpost only those one's who rly want to buy something to play tf2 and they quicksell their shit for cheap prices and buy other stuff for high prices like i do cuz i am not usual visitor of this site. and dude it's not my problem if u want to buy yer for cheaper price than it is cuz if u wouldn't want to buy it u wouldn't even posted this suggestion! and thx for reading i will enjoy my ban :D I just had to say it before it goes too far ofc ppl won't listen to me but u will understand 1 day what i really ment by saying this shit. and not my problem if u don't want to kill the page cuz of money :o and yeah i also know that i am not the only one who is trying to say this to traders... and btw hats don't give skill.

That... is like THE biggest run-on sentence I have ever seen...

Yes i know i am maniac or whatever u want me to be i am that i can't change ur opinion of me it' all up to u!!!!!!!! idc everyone hates this page but are pussies to show that well i am not i don't give a fuck!!!!!!!

Wanna get banned?

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/55722623.jpg

Very relevant. I've sold about 3 keys for refined in all my time of trading, two of which were over the past three days or so for 9.66 ref. I've never been added so fast. I'll provide proof if needed but it doesn't look like this suggestion needs it.

I Sold My keys at 9.44 about 6-7 keys Upvote this is going too ridiculous.

Actually, I don't think we'll reach 10 ref anytime soon.

People are banking keys, and the offers aren't really rising anymore.

I see keys being sold for 9-9.55 ref quite a lot right now, so going beyond 9.66 is not going to happen yet.

I think we reached the highest point. Maybe the community which is anticipating another raise will push the price up to 9.88 but after that we will go down a little and probably halt somewhere around 9 ref. The rise is slowing down and that means that people will start giving up on banking their keys for higher prices and start selling them below-value again.

I'm not saying this as counter proof or anything, just to point out my own observations, because it's kinda interesting.

Just look at cosmetics worth a key: Many of them have not updated prices, which means that for the past 3 months their value has been rising quickly for no reason. And we all know that most traders trust the price rating on items they don't know much about, which means that they will buy it for more, if bp.tf tells them it's worth more. The opposite happened with Pocket Medics recently. They were being sold for 3-4 ref, but for some reason bp.tf priced them 1.33 as regular craft hats. People started selling them for 2.5, since they saw the low price, then 2, then 1.66 and eventually they were being sold for 1.33. In my eyes this is a clear manipulation. An item lost it's value, only because of its rating on this site.

Anyways, metal is losing value because of all the timed weapon drops, so keys have to rise, but right now they jumped a little. The main problem is that keys are rising fast, while craft hats stay at the same price (1.33 ref), which means that effectively on a large scale the price of craft hats is dropping significantly. For the poorer traders this isn't noticable, since they only deal with metal, but for richer people those items are becoming really cheap, since their currency is keys and if you compute the price of cheaper items in keys, they have been falling rapidly.

I'm not all against inflation, especially if it's caused by a natural occurence like timed drops, but in this case we have an economy based on 2 (3) currencies, where the richer population uses different money than the poor ones. Now imagine the money only the rich have to be rising in value, while the poor currency drops. Is that an even market? I think not.

That is a fake balance. Keys are a little too high, which results in rich people paying lower, fake prices. All this is only possible, because the low-tier traders are overpaying.

So the overall economy stays balanced and on macro scale everything is fine, but in fact there are massive amounts of trades being fakely overpriced, because some few high-tier trades are underpriced.

This is an aritificial system with unbalanced inflation. We could compare it to the market of medieval ages, when rich people payed with gold, while poor people used coppers or other items.

All goods were getting cheaper, coins were losing value, and gold was rising constantly. What happened? Exactly what you would expect, the rich gained full control over the market and means of production, which resulted in market failure.

We are talking about the 14th-19th century. Guess which place had lots of gold, lots of trade value and resulted in an unnatural class hierarchy?

Monarchist Russia!

Exactly, they are the prime example for an unbalanced inflation market, which resulted in class disparity, class immobility, class warfare and eventually: USSR.

Of course tf2 is not a country. People won't starve to death because of being poor in tf2. There will be no social uprisings, because of classes in the trading community.

But think about it: We are using separate currencies, where basic, cheap items are based on a weak currency, while expensive ones are rising.

In the end this hurts the trading market, since the general transaction power is on decline. In the end a few items become un-affordable and everything else basically worthless.

Market Failure. Destabilization of currency.

Financial lockout.

So this is my economic point of view on keys right now.

I feel that they will slow down rising soon, because otherwise the market would become unstable and we would feel it.

Thanks for reading. For the potatos among you:

TL;DR:

Keys make communism. Gold is bad for you!

i theory, your points are good. if everything stayed equal. in practice, i think keys will go over 10 ref in a few hours when the valve update hits and new unusual effects are announced...

(NOTE: if i'm wrong, i was just kidding, if i'm right, i'm a crazy awesome prophet!)

gosh - i remember when keys were...

7.33, hehe

I remember when they were 2.33. Yes 2.33

http://prntscr.com/50qmc0

http://prntscr.com/50qmio

http://prntscr.com/50qoee He, overpay for one keys because need one more key for something I guess

http://prntscr.com/50qpd4 - 48keys sold just one person for 480refine and I would show refine but to much refine so can not show all of it

http://prntscr.com/50qpt3

But here my counter proof on it to because I think getting little bit hard buy keys for 9.66refine but I buy lot more for that then sold and post some screen shot too

http://prntscr.com/50qqwh

http://prntscr.com/50qr0o

http://prntscr.com/50qr56

http://prntscr.com/50qrfv

http://prntscr.com/50qrjd

http://prntscr.com/50qrs5

http://prntscr.com/50qvay

http://prntscr.com/50qvdp

http://prntscr.com/50qvjl

http://prntscr.com/50qvns

http://prntscr.com/50qxnj

http://prntscr.com/50qxw5

Sso my point is that not super hard sell it at 10refine but take time sell it and find keys at 9.66refine is getting hard to because toke me a while for me get some keys for that price. I hope this help somebody out with price and everything but I say most time when sell it for 10refine somebody that buying alot of keys at once and come to me because I have more then enough for all there refine ^-^

That was one point I did made - "BUY REQUESTS on 9.66 might be to intense for "everyday" user to get constant supply". Demand is just too high. Short sold time shows it very well. I did revise my proof and made major adjustments. It was partially true concerns, after revising I was still able to gather convenient amount of solds for 10 refs or less.

I would agree with that but does take some time sell the keys too but lot people send trade for my keys because they want buy in alot most time but I hope could help you out with this or help one of you ^-^

With this guys pushing up the prices up, soon the price of the key will be 12.66 refs or more .

Every accepted upper price feeds the price escalation. <- That is the main reason.

Money talks - who has no money for buying keys will be everytime with less. Great world you are making here guys. Good job.

Sir, it's not are fault key keep going up if people stop buying so damn high then maybe they stop raising and second item drop in price when keys raise in price most the time ^-^ so try keep just ask same price when key lower back then

Wow huge amount of solds! Upvoted :)

mr giang thx i like and upvote your suggestion But can i copy these for the future key price suggestion :D

in the future keys and buds will exchange places :d

Keys will be the future.

With the drop in price and the steady rise in it, I bet people who invested keys while they first came out will be happy. It's also somewhat easier to buy the items you want but couldn't because they were around 8-9 keys and then they drop down to 3, either because keys were going up or they were losing popularity.

Anyways, #keysRus (upvote).