Suggestion: Harvest Moon Desert Marauder at 100.75–124 keys

Price Suggestion

~115 keys

harvest

181 votes up

14 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Mon, 17 Nov 14 05:00:07 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Outdated, overrated, and halloween's here.

No surprise that there's a drop

Sold for PE Belt

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22934107

7.3 * 0.9 = 6.6 buds, rounding to 6.5

Sold for Flip Knife | Fade FN

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22597145

6.5 buds, just using to back up as I can't base of CS GO items alone

Sold for Hearts Tricorne + Hearts Hustlers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22315833

6.7 + 2.1 = 8.8 * 0.9 = 8 buds (not an outlier, ignoring the CS GO sale this would be fine)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Belt mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23340214 B/O 7 pure (clean)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23225023 B/O 7.5 pure (clean)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23185640 B/O 7.5 pure (duped)

Putting at 7-7.5 conservative for the mini.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Knife mini:

Sold for 5 buds pure, outlier/quicksale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23306400

Offered 5.1 buds within 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23308483

Sold for 9 in unusuals, B/O of 6.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23020909

Selling for 6.8 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23032304

Sold for 13th Hour Billy, PE Bonk Helm and Hearts Sultan

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23114185

3.5 + 2.8 + 2.3 = 8.6 * 0.9 = 8.4 buds, outlier lol

Using 6.5 for the Knife, that's the median as well as the only non-outlier sale (used proof to back up outliers)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

That's all! ^^

Say we ignore the CS:GO sale, you used B/Os to determine the PE belt's price. How sure are you that it isnt worth lesser than 7-7.5 buds, thus making that sale a more probable outlier? Just asking btw.

Well I did a bit more research, this one here declined a ~6.5 bud offer: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23281278

7-7.5 is a rough but educated guess, it isn't quite outdated yet, I just thought using the current price would be inaccurate.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22380167 - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051472189?time=1409986800 - added two buds for a scorching trophy ~11

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106953515?time=1411455600 - harvest bucket + 2.8 in items. Even if we took the bucket at 5, that's 7.5.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23187707 - bought for GE thirst ~6

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013258632?time=1410159600 - disco dread ~7

All of your belt sales look like quicksells. That will need a more solid suggestion. If it sells in 4 days at 7, shouldn't be valued at 6.6 in pure.

Sales at 6, 6.5 (knife), 7 (belt), 7.2 (dread), 8 (bucket?), 8, 11. Hmm.

Offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23257543

GE bear + 1 ~7.3

HG rancho + 1 ~6.5

Phos CM ~6.5

Hmm. I think 7-8 would probably be a safer bet given this easily gets offers 6.5-7 that get rejected. As is, 6.5 is based on the CS:GO trade, which I don't necessarily have a problem with, but it's not really a solid mini as your only sale used to price it was an outlier that sold for well over the b/o. But maybe this is close enough. idk. I'll have another mod look at it.

I agree with polar and grimdercell, but I'll elaborate on my own thing.

Ignoring the CS:GO sale, how can you tell 8.4 is an outlier, and not 6.6? 8.4 is much closer to the median 8, and 6.6 is quite farther away from 8. That's also not counting what they brought up about the belt being possibly low, maybe negating the 6.6 and the 6.5