Re-suggesting a drop (last suggestion was 86% positive but moderator closed it because of a different interpretation)

All the trades on outpost for the hat currently open:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22623198[/url] buyout of 4 buds

offers consist of 56 keys (user hid his post),

'3 buds possibly collect more' the seller asked how much more and buyer retracted (got australium scatter instead)

australium wrench with parts (1.35 buds) + Pro festive ubersaw (7.5$ steam market) + Pro festive Crusaders crossbow (9$ steam market) + Steaming hotties hoodie (1.05 buds) total of about 2.8 buds~ maybe up to 3 depending on Killstreaker

Cloud 9 thirst blood (theres a 2.5 bud buyout one on outpost, declined offer)

P fetti thirst blood + TS essential accessories + 1 key (3-4 bud unusual + 3 keys)

Miami lights detective noire (3 buds) declined

H ghost spartan (2.4-2.8 obv declined)

1 month old lv 100 electro fruit shoot (1.6-3 buds) declined

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23229329[/url] buyout of 5 buds (1 week old)

only has 1 offer, P fetti thirst blood + TS EA + 1 key

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23361096[/url] buyout of 5 buds (2 days old)

same offer as the last

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22704828[/url] Buyout of 5 buds (1 month old)

1 real offer, 3 buds (4 days ago)

completed trades (according to polar):

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23229329[/url] - bought for a GBH gilded guard (I don't see it either but supposedly he did)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22491771[/url] - cash? (buyout of 4 buds so I'm not sure about this one)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22225391[/url] - sold for 4.2 pure (72 keys) (don't see where but okay)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23074168[/url] - sale at 3.7, (Miami nights detective noire + NNB el jefe)

according to: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-new-unusual-price-suggestion-guide-the-cheat-sheet/

"No sale should be valued higher than a hat’s buyout in pure. If a person in the comments of a trade states a willingness to sell for "x" pure, the trade should not be valued above "x."

"How you should use B/Os: All of this does not mean that B/Os are not useful. Use B/Os to give a general sense of your range. if a hat remains unsold for 2 weeks with a B/O of 2 buds, a sale at 3 is probably an outlier." the first link has a buyout of 4 buds and has been there for a month.

although I think it should be 3.6-4, according to Polar (who sided with the 14%)

"Sales at 3.7 and a pure sale at 4.2. This will need a range based on sales"