Suggestion: Time Warp Flipped Trilby at 50.33 keys

Price Suggestion

~490 keys

175 votes up

30 votes down

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Comments

I remember I had a collection of collectors leveled time warp hats, including a level 42 one of these...... and then I crabbed it all away.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074043256?time=1412924400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074043256?time=1413010800 - sold for a lauren tam o'shanter (1.8-10%=1.6) + 1 bud + B.M.O.C (.7) = 3.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22550006 - sold for a max's severed head = 3.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22792566 - 3 buds 5 keys = 3.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21427458 - sold for a green energy trilby = 3.3 buds

outliers/ unusable sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22963013 - sold for a misty skull Gatsby (4.1, outdated, and literally every sale involves an outdated or underpriced hat)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22719041 - added 8 keys for a dp hk cone (5.5 -10%=4.9 - 8 keys(.5)=4.4 buds, but the cone is outdated.

mini on the green energy trilby

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23455734 - sold for a hearts berliners (2.7 buds) + 9 keys (.6 buds) = 3.3 buds

mini on the hearts berliners

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23253293 - sold for 42 keys = 2.7 buds

that's all folks.

You removed a sale for an Aces Crone. Are you ignoring it on purpose to make your suggestion look better? I know you know it exists, it's only the first link on my suggestion for the same hat. That, paired with the two "unusable" sales at over 4 would suggest that this hat can go for higher than 3.3 flat.

Btw, The DP HKC

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23440488

http://backpack.tf/item/2315148581

-Seems to have sold for a CV Pith Helmet (4.4 Outdated). Check the history to confirm it went to Junio.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22597022

Offered Smoking TC (also 4.4 Outdated ) + 7 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22726480

-Declined Hellfire Waxy Wayfinder (4.5, flat range, not outdated)

The HKC is clearly above 4 buds, even with the outdated hats being offered on it.

You have a link to this sale " http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23024477 " stating it sold for an aces crone, yet I don't see an aces crone in neither the buyer's nor the seller's histories. The aces crone sale doesn't exist, therefore it's invalid. It seems you assumed that because the seller put up an aces crone after he sold the trilby, that is what it sold for. You need to check item histories to make sure an item sold for another item.

The 2 unusable sales are unusable. The Gatsby is almost impossible to make a mini for and the dp hkc is outdated and, if its price was to be still valid, it'd be an outlier based on 4 recent 3.3 bud sales.

So yes, you are intentionally leaving it out. I provided more than one link, one of which is a backpack history, I recommend you look at them.

Instead of posting the item histories of both items, you have these 2 links " http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066722232?time=1412751600

http://backpack.tf/item/1730492275 ", which only shows the item history of the trilby and the owner's backpack. A decent suggestor would've given these 2 links " http://backpack.tf/item/2910182019 http://backpack.tf/item/1730492275 ", which are to the trilby's history and the crone's history. When I looked at your suggestion, your evidence didn't show anything proving a dp crones was sold for a time warp trilby, those who look at your suggestions shouldn't need to find additional links to see if a sale happened, it's your job to provide them. Also, if you check the history of the trilby through the outpost link you provided, you would see that the history doesn't show the buyer of that hat's name. http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3039288817,324,5

Nevertheless, the aces crones dome is also outdated, and your mini for it is invalid, making the sale invalid. The dp HKC is also outdated, and your "mini" is just some sales involving outdated hats, making that sale also outdated.

I have 4 valid and recent 3.3 sales, which I think reflects the trilby's price.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23472885

Sold for pro aussie scatter, 5 keys pure, and a vivid stately steel toe

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993742883?time=1414911600 >

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993742883?time=1415001600

The toe is ~1 bud (see http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54554057ba8d8860388b4a55 ), the scatter is approximately 3.1 buds after steam fees (See http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Australium%20Scattergun – taking average as $135, and buds as $37)

That’s 4.1 * 0.9 buds + 5 keys = 4 buds

If you use this as a mini for the crones (and it’s a perfectly valid mini) that would make the sale 3.6 after overpay, which is worth including in the range

Based on the time it took to sell, it seems like a quicksell, and also your scattergun price is based solely on market price, you need sales of an aussi scatter with the exact sheen and effects.

No you don't

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/544c034fba8d88f75f8b4617

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/543c7260b88d88e26c8b5bd2

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5430e326b88d88ca478b4e5a

I can find more if you want. Using scm sales as a mini to establish the price for pro weapons is perfectly fine, and you don't need to differentiate between sheen and effect (because honestly, there isn't reallllly an established basis for which are better, since its so opinion based).

And if you think that's a "quicksell" then clearly it should be able to fetch higher, making the TW trilby sale for the aces crones somewhat higher than your suggested price of 3.3 buds. Just because you have several sales at that price doesn't mean you have to ignore sales at higher. Unusual prices are supposed to be a representation of the range of value you should expect to get for a hat, it doesn't have to (nor should it) be a flat price.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23152714 - sale closer to ~4.5-5 for the crones. Crones is likely ~4-4.5. I think 4 should remain in the range. There's a b/o at 4.5 for the crones as well. We probably have enough to make a suggestion for that if you want.

About 6 keys in sweets were added to the trilby for the crones, which usually means it was offered (since he added sweets). That sale probably comes out to 4 in the end.

Also in the tam sale, an additional ~3 keys in sweets were added, so that's probably closer to ~3.5. I think a wider range of 3.3-4 is fine. 3.3 pure went in 4 days.

I'm so sorry I made it so you had to change the date to the next day in the bp history to see the hat. I know it must be so much trouble for you to make two mouse clicks.

My mini is invalid how? Fyi if you say it's the SCM thing again I will laugh at you, as I already explained it.

You're not very good at looking http://backpack.tf/item/2910182019

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066722232?time=1413010800

What do those 2 links prove?

You have a link to this sale " http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23024477 " stating it sold for an aces crone, yet I don't see an aces crone in neither the buyer's nor the seller's histories.

There is quite clearly an aces crones in the sellers backpack, as evidenced by the backpack history link of the sellers backpack with an aces crones in it, which you obviously didn't look for before declaring the sale "invalid".