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A little bit of a pain to price. 1 on the market, 2 in existence, and I found the second one by accident.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21787542 (Trade happened before 3 months was up.) ~ Sold for a Smoking Marauder = 1 * 0.9 = 0.9 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23299376 ~ Sold for 1 bud + 3 keys + some 2 ref spell = 1.2 buds at that time
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22325847 ~ 'Quicksold' for 1 bud + Bill's = 1.2 buds after overpay at that time
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22641358 ~ Sold for 1 bud + 4 keys + 3-4 keys in sweets = 1.4 buds after overpay at that time
First sale seems like an outlier. At that time the Marauder had a price range of 1.3 - 1.6 buds.
Feel free to counter or support my proofs.
wait, are you applying overpay to pure on third and fourth sale?
Only to sweets and Bills.