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My first attempt at a listing, and with a hat with only one copy in existence at that.
Full disclosure: I currently own the hat. I have no intention of selling it any time soon, but the desire to see a price affixed to it is a significant part of why I made this listing. That said, I have tried to be objective in compiling evidence. I realize my suggestion is for a fairly wide range; unfortunately, I didn't have much evidence to go by. The sales I used are listed below:
Successful listings for 2014:
NedHasNoHeadPoorNed sold it for a Dead Presidents Cloud Crasher (2.1-2.3 buds) a couple days ago (to me).
Coyote Kisses listed it for 2 buds [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22039494[/url] two months ago.
Zenmaster234-sik listed it for 10 buds [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21170697[/url] three months ago.
Edik1864 listed it for 2.5 buds [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21137760[/url] three months ago.
Jackspyro listed it for 3 buds [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20877337[/url] three months ago.
Expand Dong listed it for 3.5 buds [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18341605[/url] eight months ago.
Listing notes-
* I didn't mention about a half-dozen prior owners from this year who were either scammers, quicksellers or didn't have trades I could track down.
* I only know the exact price the hat went for for the most recent sale.
* Every listing allowed trading unusuals instead of buds; I have only given the bud prices, buds being by far more stable in price (and having no idea what unusuals were exchanged, if any).
Thanks for reading! By all means offer suggestions if you have any.
proof from 3 months+ is considered too old and can't be used
I see. Well, feel free to ignore ED's listing. If you ignore everything older than two months though I'm not sure there's enough evidence to justify recommending any price- I'd suggest an exception be made considering how few sales there have been to begin with, what with there only being one copy and all.
you have no valid proof for 3.5
I used an average of all sales for 2014, and then reduced it a little since 3.8 seemed high. The 10 bud listing skews things, but I'm not sure what you would propose I do; I'm not going to ignore it just because it was obviously higher than the rest.