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Meh.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/545ef504ba8d88401f8b47f8#comment-545efb8dba8d88781f8b4870
...lazy, but effective enough m8.
And after all that work, we realize that the value of this is about the same when the original suggestion was dropping this by 20%. Hats like these rarely change by that much. Those usually trigger red flags in my head and I'll go looking for more sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23285231 - another sale here for a ghosts tossle 1:1. But that's likely an outlier even though the tossle needs a drop.
I actually found those sales and planed to price the Raincatcher based on this but it turned out that if I used it, it would become an outlier. So it's better to use that sale here.
This one makes more sense to me.