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I can drop this with the classifieds and SCM alone.
Sold for 8 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23655715
Sold for 7 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23637276
Sold for 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23633465
Sold for 4 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23648128
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23655781 - 5 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23624812 - 5.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23633183 - 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23624176 - 6 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23618039 - 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23406131 - 1 key
Conclusion: With the amount of supply at 6 ref and the fact it is only 0.7$ on SCM, it's safe to say everything above 6 ref is outlier.
Feel free to counter / support my proofs.