2 in existence

1 clean : [url]http://backpack.tf/item/2078069730[/url]

1 duped : [url]http://backpack.tf/item/2040199894[/url]

My suggestion is based on sales of the clean version of the hat (4 sales the last 3 months according to the history, found all of them).

The sales on the duped Valley are used as support proof.

Sellers

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23619906[/url] Duped hat, looking for offers

[url]http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Valley%20Forge/Tradable/Craftable/74[/url] Clean one, B/O of 8 buds

#1 sale

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23438510[/url] B/O 6 buds

Sold for G. Fetti Beak + Lantern Gatsby (both clean [url]http://backpack.tf/item/265098393[/url] [url]http://backpack.tf/item/1251700995[/url])

(4.1 + 2.8)*0.9 = 6.2 buds but offer can't exceed the B/O -> 6 buds

#2 sale

Taken from this suggestion [url]http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5460b263b88d8887658b509a[/url]

[url]http://gyazo.com/a0248ebca9dd30325b701e19d5dba891[/url]

Planets Brainiac + Spellbound Valley Forge + GBH HWNN on PE Pomade Prince. Seems offered so no overpay.

2.1 + x + 7.5 = 8.8 -> x = - 0.8 buds Best than free ! no need to call it an outlier

#3 sale

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22993437[/url]

Sold for DBD Thirst Blood (unpriced)

Some B/O around 3 buds on OP found on the Thirst Blood outlier (according to the sales > 5.5 buds found on the duped Valley)

#4 sale (3 months old)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20332625[/url]

Offered on KaW Racks (unpriced), no overpay needed

Mini on the Rack [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22937476[/url] Offered on Sunbeams Chieftain, no overpay needed -> 6 buds

Support proof (duped hat)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22930858[/url] Roboactive Salty (outdated 6.2*0.9 = 5.6 buds)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23170222[/url] Sold for OF HK Cone [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3069466364,30177,5[/url] (outdated 6.3*0.9 = 5.7 buds)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23209533[/url] Sold for AF Platinum Pickelhaube [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3082680053,30042,5[/url] (3 months old 6.6*0.9 = 5.9 buds)

Any comments are welcome.