Suggestion: Aces High Executioner at 51.63–64.9 keys

Price Suggestion

~14.5 keys

aces

225 votes up

42 votes down

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Comments

You cannot set a price based off of one loser that refuses to sell his unusual

Solds

Item Histories: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20667920/ItemHistories2.txt

10.3 + 2 + x = 6.3 (outdated) + 4.2 (outdated) + 3.3 (outdated)

12.3 = x = 13.8 (outdated)

x = 1.5 This one isn't the best, as Emperor had a B/O of 10 buds on the degroot experience, the traders may have thought they were getting different amounts. I also don't know who offered, and where and if I should apply overpay. (Outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23046636 - Quicksell price of 3 buds after having a B/o of 9-10 buds for a while. No idea if he sold it for 3 buds or not. (Outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22173297 - Kill-A-Watt Tyrant's Helm + ~5 keys Mixed. Tyrants helm was not outdated at the time of the trade, but has a huge range. (~3.55 + ~.32 = ~3.9 * .9) = ~3.5 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22141035 - Sold for Burning Berliner's Bucket Helm (Scroll to the bottom to see offer). 4.2*.9 = ~3.8 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23116935 - Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Disco Beat Down Plug-In Prospector (1.2 buds) + Steaming Soldered Sensei (1.5 buds) + Smoking FR-0 (~1.6 buds, outdated). https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20667920/ItemHistories.txt I double checked with Deduction, he said the Respite was traded for the Strontium Stove Pipe. (1.6+1.5+1.2)*.9 = ~3.9

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23230282 & http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23245867 Same trade, different perspective on the price. B/O was 4 buds, but the price of the hat was ~3.3 buds (outdated). For sure, 8 keys of keys were added for the TC side. On FRUP's side, the trade could've been ~4.5 buds, and on suaxxe side, it could've been ~3.8 buds. I figure this is about ~4 buds.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23046993 - Sold for a Purple Energy Festive Tree (~4.9*.09 = ~4.4) Item Histories: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3046871051,341,5 & http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3043317219,921,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22507697 - Sold for a Blizzardy KE. 5.3*.9 = ~4.8 (Outlier)

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23524614 - 4 buds pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23261262 - 4.6 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23678243 - ~4.8 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18813109 - 4.8 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23529462 - 75 keys (~4.8 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23488934 - 6 buds

About the guy who can't sell his unusual...

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22321770 - turned down a Terror-Watt Anger (4.25 buds, outdated) and a Kill-a-Watt Pencil Pusher + Sweets (at least 3 buds) Currently getting offers around 2.5-2.8 buds, should have taken those previous offers... It's not that he can't sell it, it's that he refused to sell it.

Please don't make misleading suggestions people. Look harder.

Like always, show your own proof to counter or support my price, as long as it's constructive criticism and valid, thank you for being helpful.

"You cannot set a price based off of one loser that refuses to sell his unusual" true that!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21706794 - Has had his listed at 3 buds for nearly a month. You could maybe make a case for 3 - 3.5, but in no way should 3 not be in the range.

Yes, but he has had offers on the hat that are greater than 3 buds, he refused them. The whole point of this counter argument is one guy who screwed up shouldn't influence the suggestion as much as it did.

You're not going to deny though, that if I had 3 buds pure, I could go buy that hat right now, clearly indicating that 3 should be in the range. I recognize that there are sales at higher, and as I said, you may be able to make a range (it would have to be somewhat arbitrary though, unfortunately) but you can't deny that this hat is easily available at 3 buds, and hasn't sold at 3 buds in a month, so at a very minimum the low end should be 3.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23116935 - 3.8 buds, sold exactly 1 month ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23230282 - 4 buds, sold 3 weeks ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23046993 - 4.4, sold 5 weeks ago

Turns out I've made a mistake with the last link and thought two different trades were the same one, the link you have is correct, and he didn't have a Terror-Watt Anger offered. I can't deny you can buy that hat at 3 buds. But there's other proof about the time he changed his price that's still above 3.5 buds. If more people were currently selling below 4 buds, I would have made the low end much closer to 3.

Posted the wrong trade about the guy who couldn't sell his unusual. I'm smart... About the guy who couldn't though, it's one trade. Yes it's influential, but you don't see more sellers that low... If there were more people who were selling below 4 buds, I would make a low range closer to 3 buds.

Just sold mine for a Disco Beat Down Bubble Pipe, ~4.6*.9 = ~4.1. http://i.imgur.com/kVolyTK.png

You got my upvote.

I have it but still I know that need a drop ;-;

It is always sad day when you must do what's right... Edit: Unless it involves ice cream. Then it's not a sad day.

I don't undurstand, if there's one at 3 buds pure which hasn't sold for 3 weeks, how can it be priced higher then 3?

Because there is so much proof otherwise saying that this guy is just unlucky or stubborn. Also, like I mentioned, he had offers for over 3 buds, and he refused to take them. The price should not be based off of one guy who refuses to sell his unusual.

Okay, this is better than 3 flat. But that seller at 4...

From the guide: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-new-unusual-price-suggestion-guide-the-cheat-sheet/

"How you should use B/Os: All of this does not mean that B/Os are not useful. Use B/Os to give a general sense of your range. If a hat remains unsold for 2 weeks with a B/O of 2 buds, a sale at 3 is probably an outlier. Use them to check whether your suggested range makes sense. Just don't use them as the only proof to set both your range."

This is clearly one of those cases. If the hat is unsold for a long time at 3 buds pure, sales above are outliers. Since backpack records sales at the purest form, that means if this hat can't be sold for 3 buds pure, the offered hats are most likely going to drop.

Not to say this:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21706794

He changed his price 4 weeks ago and still can't sell his hat, should be taken into consideration.

"Just don't use them as the only proof to set your range." :\

I did that before.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/542f8c7db88d8875648b50c4

There is no reason I can't do it again.

Well, you already did :P We'll just see what the community prefers and what the admins/mods think

Just want to note this for you :P

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23524614 - Have an offer of 2.7 buds and he likely will take it.

Maybe both of us should wait to until sale happens so we can have a better range :P

We'll see...

Another one! http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23248006 + 7 keys + s.f. Force-A-Nature (~1.6 keys) x buds + ~.55 buds = ~6.2 buds. x = ~5.7 buds. Lucky trade here, definitely an outlier. But it shows that that one guy at 3 buds is not influencing the price at all.

Where did you get the value of the Bonk Boy from? It's outdated.

And there is a new suggestion up for the Bonk Boy now: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54699441ba8d88f7358b47d9

With the new price of it being 4 buds (not taking high-end because the high-end is based on the Executioner), the sale should be 4 - 1 - sweet = around 3 buds, which supports my price more than yours.

Yes, the one guy at 3 buds does influence the price.

I got the price from the time of trade, before you made a price suggestion. I also said the guy was influencing the price earlier, but not as much as you deem it so. I must have been over excited to find a higher trade, and said otherwise. Yes, it's outdated, and you have a price suggestion for it. I won't accept your price suggestion as a price for the hat until it's accepted. And technically, you should be using the average price of the hat, if I'm not mistaken, but hey, breaking rules in support of "logic" hasn't stopped you before. (Should be: ~4.15 -1 = ~3.15 which still supports your side more). I guess really, as both hats involved in the trade have active price suggestions on it, this shouldn't be influencing either of our price ranges, as it's unsure what the real prices are, until one of them gets a price.

Ok, I'm gonna throw in my 2 cents here. I don't understand that 1st link in the slightest, but I sold my PE Tavish Degroot Experience (which I valued at 9-10 Buds. Outdated bp.tf price.) for the Aces Executioner + 3 Buds. Wheat Farmer was the one who offered on my Degroot. I don't know how the equation would go since the value of the Degroot is outdated on this site.

Screenshot

http://i.imgur.com/CZgwwuo.png

And I later sold the Aces Executioner for a Scorching Furious Fukaamigasa (6.3*0.9 = 5.66. Also outdated).

Screenshots:

http://i.imgur.com/dgNozSi.png

http://i.imgur.com/n4oH2y0.png

Thanks for the more info, though I've mostly forgotten about this suggestion. Surprised that neither this or the other one has been accepted yet...