I'm dumbfounded by this drop too...

Sale 1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23153836 Sold with 1 bud + 33 keys (2.1 buds at the time) for Miami Crone's

(1 + 2.1) + X = 5.6

3.1 + X = 5.6

X = 2.5 buds

Crone's http://backpack.tf/item/2236762656

Kabuto http://backpack.tf/item/2600118939

Bud http://backpack.tf/item/125272316

Sale 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21563233 Sold for Miami Samur Eye + 3 keys of sweets (Noted in trade)

5*0.9 + 0.2 = 4.7

Kabuto http://backpack.tf/item/2600118939

Samur-Eye http://backpack.tf/item/2768398458

Mini for Samur-Eye

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23078756 Sold for C9 Reggaelator

5.5*0.9 = 5 buds

Reggae http://backpack.tf/item/1768865972

Samur-Eye http://backpack.tf/item/2768398458

Sale 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23527205 Sold for KaW Falkirk Helm

Kabuto = 2.1 * 0.9

Kabuto = 1.9

Falkirk http://backpack.tf/item/2875266554

Kabuto http://backpack.tf/item/2692601172

Mini for Falkirk

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23185560 Sold for P. Fetti Chapeau

Falkirk = 2.3*0.9

Falkirk = 2.1

Chapeau http://backpack.tf/item/3069647375

Falkirk http://backpack.tf/item/2875266554

Sellers (worth noting that 4 buds is just too high)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22375503 3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23661197 3.2 buds (in keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23687658 3.1 buds (in keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23684388 3.3 buds

Second Sale is determined as an outlier.