Solds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23729461 - 4 ref / Sold in less then 2 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23728613 - 5 ref / Sold in less then 2 hours

http://gyazo.com/d6f031d6e802b9947b07a65b0037536b - 4.88 (backpack: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045688371 )

http://gyazo.com/9ca260f124c379419fc671e3636ffd8c - 4.88 (bp: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056845609 )

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23723381 - 4 ref / 8 hours ago, not even bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23720904 - 5 ref / 10 hours ago, bumped 6 hours ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23718242 - 4.66 / sold? got an uncraftable one in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23718082 - 5 ref / sold 8 hours ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23716158 - 4.66 / sold 10 hours ago? still in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23716078 - 4 ref / 16 hours ago, no bump

http://gyazo.com/fea3fc6ac54fec395fe0c362e3b664d6 - 5 ref / bp: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117941898

http://gyazo.com/8c8f7ce8398214a6270ea25166980c0d - 5 ref / bp: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990179619

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23707987 - 5 ref, no bump / he has tons of bp expanders, probably he sold one

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23707420 - 5 ref, 1 day old and no bump, had only 4 views on the trade and sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23703929 - 5 ref / 1 day (restocker)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23697760 - 4.66 / 1 day, no bump

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23703747 - 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22857538 - buying for 4 ref selling for 4.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23667566 - 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23729013 - 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23712872 - buying for 4.66 selling for 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14464126 - 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23731433 - 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15572973 - 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13832722 - 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23013019 - 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23586643 - 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23680693 - 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23729969 - 5.33

And thats only from the 1st page of outpost...

Conclusions: 5 ref is the most common price on the market. 4 ref sellers are intending to quicksell (inteantially or not, 4 ref sells really quickcly). 5 ref also seems to sell quickly, but looking at the proof you can see many people are able to sell for 4.66 and 5 ref, even knowing that there are many others selling for more.

Any support or counter proof is welcome