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1 of 1 in the world
History: http://backpack.tf/item/3144858125
#1 sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23645267
sold for an Orbiting Fire Strontium Stove pipe~14 keys ~0.9 buds outlier.
before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069892390?time=1415520000
after : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069892390?time=1415606400(I posted the buyer's bp because the seller's wa not shwing this trade clearly)
#2 sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23685227
sold for ~3 buds pure only sale :p
before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042170501?time=1415692800
after : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042170501?time=1415952000
you need to include 1st sale to low range
if you call it as a quicksell, then you need a 3rd sale
look at this http://backpack.tf/vote/id/546a44b9b98d885d328b458f xD
I personally would pay 1 bud for this in a heartbeat, as much as I dislike the new halloween effects. However, since you're ignoring the first sale, what you're essentially doing is pricing off a single sale, which you cant do for this hat. You have to wait for one more sale to verify that 1 is in fact an outlier (even though it's a reasonable assumption to think it is).
You need 2 sales to price a new Halloween effect and the first isn't valid so I would say you still need to wait for another sale.
Does a steam community market sale counts?
You need to wait for a third sale. It's impossible to say which one of them is the outlier. The person in the 3 bud trade could as well have paid way too much. And can you please post an after link for the 2nd sale?
done and does a Steam Community market sale counts?
Okay, we need 2 sales.
You got 2 sales but when we would accept that, the range would be 0.9-3 which is way too large.
This means you need a third sale to confirm which one of them is an outlier. I think the best that you can do at the moment is wait till another sale appears and then try to price this unusual.
I found a 3rd sale ... it's a steam community market one... does it count?
I think it's kinda obvious which the outlier is, but if you have that steam community market sale, post it. SCm can be used as supporting proof. THe one who sold it for the shitty hat was also trying to get 5 buds from the valve complete pack, he doesn't know anything about trading. He's just downgraded ever since He got the titanium.