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Ok, it's better now.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22561550 - Sold with 6 keys + Roboactive Armored Authority (5.7 buds) for a Green Energy Bonk Boy (13.5 buds) (13.5*0.9 - 5.7 - 0.4 = 6 buds)
Sale 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23691271 - Sold for a Sunbeams Ye Olde Baker Boy (6.7*0.9 = 6 buds)
Mini for the Sunbeams Ye Olde Baker Boy
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/546dbdfab98d88b5428b470e
Feel free to counter / support my proofs.
This is definitely too low, and there are definitely more sales than just these 2.
A duped one went for 3 buds and 94 keys (8.5 buds, sellers b/o):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22992584
This needs further researching, both 6 buds sale could also be an outlier if more sales arise.
Another duped sale below.
Sold for 8 buds in keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22762628
Also, for the first sale, why is it that you calculated overpay for the bonk boy only but not the RA AA as well? As far as I know, if there isn't any indication of who offered, then overpay must be calculated on all unusuals and items.
_______________________________________________________________
Just to show that 6 buds is an outlier, here's a what the seller of the first sale bought it for:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22458053 - quicksold for 7 buds in less than a day (slightly old, but less than 3 months)
Also,
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22469173 - declined 7 buds 1 key.