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First Sale is Shown as outlier.
Sale 1OUTLIERhttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23652207 Sold with Screaming Tiger MtM for a Burning Dragonborn + Specialized Killstreak Strange Festive Minigun + Strange Festive Sandvich
X + 3 = 15.5*0.9 + 1.6*0.9 + 0.3*0.9
X + 3 = 15.7 buds
X = 12.7 buds
Baron http://backpack.tf/item/3121164066
Minigun http://backpack.tf/item/641398299
Dragonborn http://backpack.tf/item/1323737577
Sandvich http://backpack.tf/item/1332108131
Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/2696134537
Mini for Minigun
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Specialized%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Minigun Most Recent Sold for $45.49 (19th Nov)
X = 45.49 + 45.49*.15
X = 1.6 buds
Mini for Taunt
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23704945 Sold for 3 buds pure
X = 3
Taunt http://backpack.tf/item/2711959106
Bud 1 http://backpack.tf/item/273715325
Bud 2 http://backpack.tf/item/103880075
Bud 3 http://backpack.tf/item/100822570
Sale 2
Sold for Stormy Exquisite Rack + 3 buds Pure + 3 keys
X = 3.15*0.9 + 3 + 0.2
X = 2.8 + 3 + 0.2
X = 6
After Sale http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080250669?time=1415608880 (Everything After and including Rack)
Baron http://backpack.tf/item/3149929986
Sale 3
Sold for Duped KaW Safe n Sound + C9 Brainiac's
X = 1.4*0.9 + 3.1*0.9
X = 4.1
Safe http://backpack.tf/item/2283550623
Baron http://backpack.tf/item/3149929986
Brainiac's http://backpack.tf/item/1825689613
Mini for Safe n Sound
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23660487 Sold for Orbiting Fire Hustler's
X = 1.5*0.9
X = 1.4
Hustler's http://backpack.tf/item/1853773894
SnS http://backpack.tf/item/2589464836
Mini for Brainiac's
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23340927 Sold for Scorching Elfin
X = 3.4*0.9
X = 3.1
Elfin http://backpack.tf/item/1131370846
Brainiac's http://backpack.tf/item/1825689613
meh. I'm kinda thinking the 4.1 might be an outlier as well.
I think the KaW SnS + Brainiacs is more of an outlier. Maybe should wait til theres been a few more stable sales?
Chan, how much did you buy yours for? You sold it for the Burning Dragonborn lol
I paid a beams Slick Cut + Lantern Ushanka (duped) + some keys (cant remember the figure, not over a bud) for it, altogether around 11? And for the record I paid a really bad 3rd gen unusual + 2 buds on the taunt (around 3 buds). Glad I sold them though, haha! I think when the SFs are included it makes some pretty good profit
I took a look at that sale lol, the Ushanka eventually got Gifted by the person you sold it to, which just turned me off of finding so much Minis for one hat lol
Slick however is like 7.5?
Two sales either side, this one provided by Chan looks like it's more than 10. Both B/Os on OP are ~10, these two higher sales might be outliers? :s
This is beyond confusing
4.1, 6, ~10-11, 12.7, with two B/Os of 10. I think this range is fine. Or not. I DON'T KNOW.
On the contrary, I think the higher sales are more accurate. The Kaw SNS + Brainiac seems to be the odd one here. The lowest proper sale imo is the SS rack + 3 buds and keys
If two can't sell when they have B/Os of 10, then that kinda shows that sales above 10 are kinda outlier-ish. I'm not opposed to waiting for another sale, I mean, honestly, I think that's the best thing to do right now actually. All these sales everywhere.
Well my b/o was 10 and its safe to say I made that (and then some). I think its best to wait for more stable sales. The 4.1 just messes up everything, theres no way realistically speaking, this should have sold for as low at 4.1 :/
If your B/O was 10, sale value can't be above that. Okay, so, 4.1, 6, 10, 12.7.
Realistically, yeah, it's logical that this hat shouldn't be worth that much, but if there are more sales down around 4-6ish then it's gonna be worth around there. But another sale is probably best, yeah.
I suppose, but it just seems to be the odd one amongst the rest to me. Anyway, waiting for more sales with a smaller range is defo the best option.
Keep an eye on both Secret Havenplanes. If they sell, post a comment and such and I'll get to it; I'm busy most times of the day so I'll hardly notice
The person that paid 13 sold it for 2.... http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23903236 - both for a beams scout shako which had a b/o of 6.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23422970 - beams slick + lantern ushanka + 4 (?) keys ~9
So sales at 2, 4, 6, 9, 13. I don't think there's any reasonable way to define a range with a set of sales like that. We should wait for more sales and give this time to settle