Well, after seeing this tonight, I am not going to bed anytime soon. Counter suggestion to http://backpack.tf/vote/id/547ced59ba8d882c318b45ac kind of... :P

Classifieds don't count as proof to suggest a first price, thought most of them are between 1 key to 11 ref, thought practically no one is selling it on Outpost at 11 ref, thought for a new item, there sure are a lot of them, thought Outpost sellers don't count as proof either, only sales, which brings us to...

Recent sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23948258 Sold for 9.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23912197 Sold for either a key of 11 ref...

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23943265 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23841339 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23794641 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23765820 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23957147 1 key (No longer in backpack)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23797802 1 key and 2 scrap, rounds to a key anyways.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23794430 Offered a key, says in a comment he got multiple offers at it too.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23832241 Highest offer offered a key and a strange Jarate, which rounds to a key anyways. Also got offered one key.

And for the laughs...

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23943000 Selling for 'Middle-Upper BP.TF prices.'

Despite the fact it doesn't seem stable, 1 key is definitely the most traded point at the moment. (Second time suggesting, my finger slipped while I was typing this earlier, and I submitted it while it was unfinished by mistake XD)