3 recent sales.

Sale #1

sold for beams batters ~4.5, no overpay since offered

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23205337

source: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5451f0d2b88d8815738b4751

Sale #2

Australium Rocket + Bud + Strange Original

(4.3*0.9~3.9) + (1) + (0.357~0.4)

= 5.3

http://i.imgur.com/Y7DKGec.png

Sale #3

My Hearts Tyrants (8) + 1 key for Gift Wrap (0.07) for AF Pot (4.9 if this suggestion passes) + Scorching Sober Stuntsman (Outdated Check below "3.7") + S. Summer Shades (Gifted) (0.6) + S. Whip (0.15)

8.07- (3.7+0.75)= 3.6 outlier

Stuntman

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23502833

Sold for http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23974846 (he states what he bought it for in notes

Extra Proof: http://i.imgur.com/Y7DKGec.png

(3.3+0.4) No overpay as sale was promos

Putting value to 4.5-5.3