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Seems to need a drop.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23588854 ~ Sold for 42 keys pure = 2.7 buds at that time
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22656377 ~ Sold for PE Prancer's + 5 keys = 2.6 buds after overpay at that time
Prancer's is outdated but all sales are either untrackable, a bit of complexity or outdated. Not taking the current screwed up price, but I assume according to http://backpack.tf/vote/id/525da5da4dd7b8c6118b456a is 2.3-2.8 buds, making the prancer's 2.55 buds.
Feel free to counter or support my proofs.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23997703 - sold with '72 party trick for hellfire pith (unpriced)
Prancer sale probably shouldn't be used, as the value can't be updated. 2.7 flat should work, with the Prancer sale as support :P