Suggestion: Scorching Flames Bone Dome at 130 keys

Price Suggestion

~100 keys

scorch

137 votes up

39 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Thu, 01 Jan 15 17:50:11 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

SOLDS / RESOLDS:

I bought one for 8 buds pure: http://prntscr.com/5fvcgi

I sold the one i bought for 10 buds pure: http://prntscr.com/5fvcmo

I already had one before this, which was the one i got from trading a duped max's head to a collector, which invalidates it in price suggesting.

This one i got from duped vintage max, i also sold for 10 buds pure: http://prntscr.com/5fvczg

Another trade happened, a maddendoktor sunbeams 1:1 scorching bone dome

NOTE: Maddendoktor is updated

NOTE 2: Bone dome is not

Buyer BP before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056132900?time=1416643200

Buyer BP after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056132900?time=1416729600

History of the bones:

1st: http://backpack.tf/item/3004101705

2nd: http://backpack.tf/item/2971553345

Conclusion:

Since bone is not updated and maddendoktor is, this trade can be ignored since it was not the "true" price of the bone dome.

And this makes 8-10 or 10 buds pure it's true price. (I'm adopting 10 buds since it happened twice)

Do I need to change anything? Help me out in the comments section !

The fact this is 14-17 in the first place

Hey Lazy, how u doing? Every suggestion I do you show up to give help =)

Active members <3

Sale #2 would be a quicksell and I'm guessing that sale #1 would too.

And that is what happens:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5421e85dba8d888d7b8b4845

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/547577f6ba8d88dd608b4923

the joke in all of this is that the beams maddendoktor is going to stay at 14.

Why a flat 10?

Sure two sold for 10, but that doesn't mean the other sales are invalid.

Yes, it was updated 2 weeks ago. Very recently !

upvote, sold mine for a max head(v) and i add.

http://prntscr.com/5fvg0j

Paid a DP viewfinder and this scorching bone for the Vintage max head.

Since a clean vintage max came from nowhere, this cannot be used as proof. But anyway, thanks asteca :3

always trying to help you, my lord :D

<3 gl, u still have my upvote

was the one you bought at 8 buds a quicksell?

There seems to be quite a few valid sales:

http://backpack.tf/item/2883437052

http://backpack.tf/item/2971553345

http://backpack.tf/item/3004101705

Also:

1. Regardless of being outdate or not, someone was willing to pay a Sunbeams Maddendoktor for it (14).

2. If the price is indeed outdated and overpriced as you mentioned, then the Maddendoktor sale is an outlier. In that case, you need a third sale (at least 2 more sales for me) to justify it being an outlier. To me, the 2 sales you have at 10 buds pure seem to much like quicksells.

3. Any overpays needed?

4. "Since a clean vintage max came from nowhere, this cannot be used as proof." This confuses me. Why is this invalid as proof?

5. Yes. You can use the duped max's head as valid proof. You just need to make a mini for it.

Staying neutral for now. Very inclined to downvote.

you really didn't bother checking the madden...

it got priced exclusively based upon the current price of this hat.

What about the other points I have made?

The Maddendoktor was previuosly priced at 13 buds. Whether it was priced exclusively or not, I would like to see proof of it being the outlier in addition to the 2 10 buds sales you have (again, seems like quicksells - unless you can prove otherwise).

Reading comprehension is a valuable life skill.

hes written out very clearly that he paid 8 buds for one and the other he paid part of a duped v max (and in fact the guy who sold it for that max is in this thread and has posted indicating he added a DP view to get this hat)

That is 2 more sales UNDER 10.

"Reading comprehension is a valuable life skill." Completely unconstructive and unncessary.

Yes. He did state that he bought one for 8. But he also stated that it was a quicksell, thus unusable. Now if the sale for the duped Max valid, then shouldn't the range be ~8-10? Futhermore, just because there are 2 more sales under 10 does not mean the 10 bud sales were not outliers.

Right now, the sales are 7-8 buds, 8 buds, 10 buds, 10 buds, 14 buds. Which is the outlier? This is what the suggester needs to sort out.

So in your alternative universe a hat is 'quick sold' 4 times and then sold once. Thus everyone should totally believe that the highest sale is its one and only value.

The logic, it is missing.

"The logic, it is missing." Completely unconstructive and unnecessary.

Both 10 buds sales seem like quicksells, and it is possible.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23704511

1 sold in 1 day, the other sold in 2 days.

"What is a quicksell?

Time is only one factor used to determine a quicksell. If a hat sells within 1-2 days for its b/o in pure, one should be suspicious."

Also, yes and no. If the recent sales are 4 quicksells and 1 sale, then a price suggestion would not be suitable. More sales should incur before the suggestion to identify outliers. Which, in this case, is possible. But the suggester needs to do it.

you really cherry picked that quote to forget something.

What is a quicksell?

Time is only one factor used to determine a quicksell. If a hat sells within 1-2 days for its b/o in pure, one should be suspicious. However, since time to sell varies greatly among the type of hats (old vs new effects, misc vs hats, high tier vs low tier), this is not a reliable way to identify a quicksell. More important is how a sale relates to other sales. If a hat sells for less than commonly offered values in pure or unusuals or for less than common trade points, that is likely a quicksell.

Selling for less than commonly offered values? No

How it relates to other sales? Lets see... 7.5 in unsuals, 8 in pure, 10 in pure, 10 in pure, 14 in unusuals.

Mean 9.9.

Skew .8 (LEFT)

"GG" I'm not trying to fight you. I'm trying to have a constructive argument that would help this price suggestion.

No. I picked it because it was relevant to my point that they CAN be, in fact, quicksells.

So let's look at the other part of the quote:

"If a hat sells for less than commonly offered values in pure or unusuals or for less than common trade points, that is likely a quicksell."

Then are we assuming that the other sales are valid? Are we using the sale with the Max? Are we counting the 8 buds pure "quicksell" a valid sale? This was my question from before: "Right now, the sales are 7-8 buds, 8 buds, 10 buds, 10 buds, 14 buds. Which is the outlier? This is what the suggester needs to sort out."

Asks question

> Provided with data

Contorts a rule to support standpoint

> Provided with entire rule

Asks same question again, provides no evidence contrary to the suggestion (again)

I'll be happy to leave it to a logical and impartial observer.

What?

Right now, I think all the sales except the 14 one are invalid. And I'm waiting to be proven wrong.

Well, you're pretty much right about most things here. Beams madden getting priced based on this is problematic. The guy who traded this for the beams madden has been trying to sell the madden since November and his b/o is 12. That's probably close to 10 as well. That should be priced off this instead of the other way around.

Other sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23670674 - offered on the law.. b/o on the law was 13, so certainly no more than 12.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24272903 - sale value of 11 after overpay. 2:2 trade involving the spellbound war pig

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24287930 - disco cone + 4.5 in hats. There's a b/o of 8 on the cone and he resold in a few days for ~7.5 in hats. After overpay, sale is about 11 in value.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24175198 - added a bills for this beams dragonborn ~13

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095788662?time=1418544000 - theres a molten mallard tyrants up for 5.5. sale is no more than 10

Sales at 8, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 13. Two other sales definitely under 12 but uncertain. I'd be fine with a conservative 10-13 to account for the uncertainties of the two sales at <12 or a range of 10-11. Either way. 10 flat is probably a bit low though. And the beams madden should be repriced.

the one u sold at 10buds was quickselll so it's not a proof

I paid about 14 in hats for mine so I still think current price of 14 is fine. 17 is way too high

yeah payed 15 for mine, a sunbeams dragonborn