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Hallow2014 yayness.
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23765115 Sold for Demonflame Bubble (Outdated at 12, mini at 10.5)
10.5 * 0.9 = 9.45 (rounding to 9.5)
Histories;
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3201759108,30355,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3209351681,597,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23741694 Sold for PS Hive (Outdated at 8.75, mini at 8)
8 * 0.9 = 7.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23718258 Sold for Cauldron Whoopee? Outlier.
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3201759108,30355,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3201759107,30093,5
Pipe mini:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23927476 Offered on SBTWC Killer (11.1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23745263 Asking for 10 pure
Using 10-11.
Hive mini:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23800279 Sold for AF Brigade (7.6)
7.6 * 0.9 = 6.84 (rounding to 7)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22116198 Sold for PowerS Pig (~10)
10 * 0.9 = 9
Using 7-9.
Let it ride.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039625269?time=1416643200 - stare c buto + ps tin topi ~9.5
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083665484?time=1418716800 - disco hong kong cone (b/os at 8 on the market)
Other sales involve people getting scammed and fences selling dirt cheap. I think your range is right on.