Price Suggestion
Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
Submitted by ★ Neo
60.51%
14 ref
15–15.66 ref
67
~57.22 ref
Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
878 votes up
573 votes down
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Comments

Sorry, folks, I'm being a hypocrite. Counter. Proof below (>150 links) - officially more proof than Plaxorøus.


I decided to run a little experiment. Using some code magic I managed to track every key => ref sale on outpost, except those open for under a minute. I wanted to see if previous key proofs were being selective - only the slow sellers, and I wanted to see if people were selling for 14 ref - but they were just going too quickly for people to catch them.


The proof below is my findings. I judged the sales based upon keys in their backpack (sometimes their BP would not load properly, so I noted that next to sales "didn't check bp" if that was the case), key history on outpost (you can find this by clicking on it) and if the trade was closed or not. There were some cases with 16 ref sellers where the trade was closed but the keys weren't sold (still in bp or no history change.)


I did not include any bot sellers/buyers simply because I cannot consider them real proof. While bots may advertise they are buying for 16 ref, the amount of effort to figure out if a bot is actually working, if it has ref in its backpack and so on would be too much to bother with. Only trades without the word 'bot' in the comments are listed. Out of 324 trades in my mini-database, only 24 had the term 'bot' in its trade description.


I only used the first 200 links found as I didn't have hours to do this. Some of these 200 were invalid (selling backpack, selling unu + key, etc) so you won't see them below.


Without further ado, here we go.

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ => 14.77. This is interesting. Perhaps it is lagging behind today.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1 => Classifieds: Very few under 16 ref now.


Incoming wall of links in three... two... one.


Unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24224237 - 30 ref (Kappa)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23113050 - 20 ref (just wait 2 months)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24194919 - 18 ref (we laugh, but cry because this will probably become the reality)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24231601 - 17 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233349 - 17 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23919869 - 17 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23863392 - 17 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234514 - 17 ref sold 0

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24167491 - 17 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23853408 - 17 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24230886 - 16.66 (closed but no history change)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24222246 - 16.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23950337 - 16.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23292271 - 16.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236124 - 16.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24214264 - 16.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24190469 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235414 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20867153 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236890 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24028944 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23686683 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24116535 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24031813 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24215366 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23029389 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24199643 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24200389 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24118479 - 16 ref (loads in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24165059 - 16 ref (more than 50 unsold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23995750 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233662 - 16 ref (many in bp) - may have also sold some

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24125572 - 16 ref (many in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234370 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24114577 - 16 ref - may have sold some, half ref half keys in bp. unsolds there

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21914452 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24229445 - 16 ref - no history change, probably still has (didnt check bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234886 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24173202 - 16 ref. can't buy for 15 either

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24207931 - 16 ref many unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24152410 - 16 ref


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235151 - 15.88 x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24109108 - 15.77 x3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236660 - 15.66 x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234105 - 15.55 (someone buy it quick!)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23747108 - 15.33 - may have sold, may have not. over 100 in bp


Sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24224471 - 16.77 sold outlier/fake

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234530 - 16.33 sold one

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232065 - 16 ref sold (history) - a lot of untradable keys in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22556176 - 16 ref sold x>1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24040377 - 16 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24164891 - 16 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232059 - 16 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24226778 - 16 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235399 - 16 ref sold, history change

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24014995 - 16 ref, seems to have sold?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234797 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24212809 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24200297 - 16 ref sold (no history change, someone check bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24230600 - 16 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24223614 - 16 ref x2


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235486 - 15.88 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235444 - 15.88 sold x5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24031128 - 15.77 sold x15 unsold x12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233473 - 15.77 sold


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232193 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24118218 - 15.66 sold all (none in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24165213 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24116596 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235757 - 15.66 sold x8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22976362 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24230165 - 15.66 sold x13 jeez

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21058028 - 15.66 sold (check comments)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24223511 - 15.66 sold x>1 (1 in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24215863 - 15.66 sold x4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233003 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24083837 - 15.66 sold (none in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232950 - 15.66 sold x>1 (history)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24214680 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235689 - 15.66 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24214450 - 15.66 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24199087 - 15.66 sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22587967 - 15.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234119 - 15.66 sold x8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234765 - 15.66 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234096 - 15.66 sold


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23733496 - 15.55 sold x>3 (check comments)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24229629 - 15.55 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24151902 - 15.55 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24169862 - 15.55 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24227305 - 15.44 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24237264 - 15.44 sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23565059 - 15.44 sold x>3 (none in bp, loads of ref in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24192396 - 15.33 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233488 - 15.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234153 - 15.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24228527 - 15.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236952 - 15.33 sold x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234356 - 15.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234457 - 15.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234383 - 15.33 sold x3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234284 - 15.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24210914 - 15.33 sold x>8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24213054 - 15.33 sold all (none in bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23799553 - 15.33 sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24221439 - 15.33 sold x4 (several trade offers sent)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23972108 - 15.33 sold x>1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24216721 - 15.22 sold x8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23697896 - 15.22 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23792088 - 15.11 sold all


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232545 - 15 ref sold x8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232671 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234738 - 15 ref sold x3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232833 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234836 - 15 ref sold x3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232867 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236705 - 15 ref sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232906 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24177460 - 15 ref sold x1 (didnt check bp)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232955 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24072881 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24237093 - 15 ref sold x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24150986 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236146 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24184289 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235373 - 15 ref sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233043 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235895 - 15 ref sold x7

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235771 - 15 ref sold x3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24086754 - 15 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235512 - 15 ref sold x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22025683 - 15 ref sold all


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24060141 - 14.88 sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23885944 - 14.88 sold x35

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24116600 - 14.66 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23521171 - 14.66 sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235959 - 14.66 sold x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235505 - 14.66 sold x1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24233199 - 14.44 sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22222230 - 14.33 sold x?? none in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23290616 - 14.33 sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232927 - 14.33 sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232526 - 14 ref sold x12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232700 - 14 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23917825 - 14 ref sold all

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24235443 - 14 ref sold x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23989830 - 14 ref sold all (old trade though)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24220822 - 14 ref sold all


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234012 - 13.22 (good man)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236727 - 13 (nice)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236539 - 12 (untradable, but still a lad)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19677746 - 10 ref (ilu <3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236159 - 8 ref (marry me)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24181781 - ???


May have sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24220545 - 16

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23902384 - 15.55 - not even gonna try and figure this out


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21293308 - invalid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23962345 - invalid no ref or keys found in bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23825626 - invalid 4 weeks old open

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22210122 - invalid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23806391 - invalid

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236086 - invalid


Buyers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23915782 - 15.33 bought 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24234593 - 15.22 bought 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24232232 - 15.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24223511 - 15.22


I didn't check for buyers so I just included the buyer and seller trades found.


Conclusion

While sells below 15 are still found, they go too quickly to be considered in the range. I expected to find more sellers below 15 ref but it appears people are aware they can get 15.66 and so don't bother. The classifieds support this, with very few under 15 ref being found, and these are 'quicksells'.


16 ref could not be included in the range due to the approx. equal unsolds and solds. Next time, perhaps.


I chose the range 15 - 15.66 due to the large amount of 15.66 solds which sold fairly quickly, and the lack of 15.66 unsolds on the classifieds. There is also a suggestion already open for 15-15.33, and I didn't want my work here to mean nothing...


15 refs go very quickly. 15.33 goes about the same speed. 15.66 is slower but still gone very fast. I imagine there are plenty of bot buyers in the 15.33-15.66 range. While some 16 refs are being sold, not enough are to consider a 15-16 range (and 1 ref range is really too large anyway).


All of these links are trades bumped within the last 18 hours.


For reference, I hate keys going up as much as you do. I figured, at least let's see the whole picture if we're gonna keep raising keys. This is a HUGE jump of 1.33 ref. Perhaps this is the end... This is my first, and hopefully last currency suggestion.


Have a good day.

Avatar ★ Neo · posted

dayum, upvote

Avatar ★ Hani · posted

    Holy proof!

    Avatar ★ FCUCK · posted

      Consider me impressed regarding the proof. range seems reasonable, althought it seems to have a tendency towards 16 ref/key already. Upvote anyway.

      Avatar ★ The Weather Man · posted

        There were too many unsolds @ 16 for me to consider it. Conversely, I only found one unsold at 15.66 out of all of them.


        Be thankful, I suppose... this jump is already big enough.

        Avatar ★ Neo · posted

        I post them for 15 ref and they get sold faster then hotcakes.


        Sailing the upboat.

        Avatar ★ TheNuclearBongTTV · posted

          Convinced... All i have to say. upthroat.

          Avatar ★ Cantreon · posted

            upvote how much time did you spend with that ?

            Avatar ★ Clemens Aldenbrock · posted

              3 hours coding (but I can use this script again if needed) yesterday, about 1 hour going through the results today.


              The script is a simple DOM parser on a search page combined with a cron job that runs every minute.

              Avatar ★ Neo · posted

                What language did you use?

                Avatar ★ 0,0,0|Akira of Chocolate Eggdom · posted

                  PHP.

                  I'm not giving out my script because I don't think outpost would be happy with 10 people running this every minute. I've stopped running mine.

                  Avatar ★ Neo · posted

                    I would agree with that, but it might not stop those with the knowledge to do so from doing it, especially for high-volume items like this. :)

                    Avatar ★ 0,0,0|Akira of Chocolate Eggdom · posted

                      By all means they should go ahead. The more links, the more accurate the suggestion. The problem is - the time it takes to collect 300 results, may also be the time it takes for another suggestion to get accepted.


                      Also, for once a key suggestion isn't a comment graveyard - that's nice.

                      Avatar ★ Neo · posted

            "I only used the first 200 links found as I didn't have hours to do this." -Someone who makes it look like they have hours to do this, but apparently don't. #upvote #upboat #upgoat

            Avatar ★ Lark · posted

              Read all of it. Good job.

              Avatar ★ haaqo · posted

                Sold mine for 15 ref in microseconds. Seriously, I think the person had the trade all set up before I even posted the listing. Upvote away.

                Avatar ★ The En-Titties · posted

                  up on my boot ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)

                  Proof is good.

                  Avatar ★ johann · posted

                    Upvote for the significant amount of proof, I'm only a bit unsure if 15 ref is a quicksale or not. It kinda is from my experience in the last 2 days.

                    Avatar ★ Guodlca · posted

                      This site reflects the common trading point - there are still loads of sellers for 15 ref. Once those sellers stop selling for 15 and sell for 15.33, then it can be removed from the range.


                      Anything under 15 is without a doubt a quicksell at this point.

                      Avatar ★ Neo · posted

                      This range seems WAAAAY better than any other suggestion and its backed up by a fair amount of proof! Upvote!

                      Avatar ★ Butters · posted

                        >sees 4 key suggestions,

                        "Time for me to keep all my keys. And by all I mean none."

                        Avatar ★ UnEpic_ · posted

                          The proof is strong in this one..


                          upvote

                          Avatar ★ BOOM! · posted

                            This is going to happen but I want to clarify this very clearly. Whenever key suggestions are open, there are bound to be unhappy people who will possibly start a flame war. Please do NOT start flame wars or feed trolls on key suggestions. This is a serious matter and is a bannable offense. Don't say I didn't warn you. Please Keep ALL comments relevant and constructive to the suggestion, Spamming "Good proof upvote" etc is not helping the suggestion in any way. This will make a mod's life much, much easier. If you want to rant, do it in the forums.


                            One more thing, disliking all the comments against your thoughts will not make you a better person

                            Avatar ★ 很硬 very hard · posted

                              There has been no flaming whatsoever in the comments section here, for once. [so far].

                              Avatar ★ Neo · posted

                              http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236159 - 8 ref (marry me)

                              WoW #8 ref...

                              Many proofs = upvote.

                              Avatar ★ cxre · posted

                                Needless to say,UPVOTE.

                                Avatar ★ StingerRPG · posted

                                  Welp, what can I say. Proof looks good, upvote.


                                  I have a feeling that keys will sink after the update.

                                  Avatar ★ handymanmiles · posted
                                    Avatar ★ Alex Gera · deleted by the submitter

                                      I lolled..

                                      "http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24236159 - 8 ref (marry me)"

                                      Upvote

                                      Avatar ★ Lavadood · posted

                                        Some things will never change.

                                        http://imgur.com/a/Q1KgN

                                        Avatar ★ The One · posted

                                          Here is some more proof:

                                          http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24198854 - 18 ref

                                          I've been selling these keys for 18 ref, and I was succesful, I sold 2 of them for 36 ref (18 ref each) as you can see in the screenshot provided in the trade.

                                          Avatar ★ trulyunfathomable · posted

                                            People who do not have keys are pretty much doomed (apart from supplying Ga(y)ben with money to buy the keys)


                                            Still upvote

                                            Avatar ★ Isobutyraldehyde · posted

                                              Now That`s what I call Proof. Upvote!

                                              Avatar ★ -=๖CŽﮔ=- ℓιℓ sqυιɗ · posted

                                                Good proof. Range looks good but 15 is still kinda quicksell. 15.33-16 would be about right. Though ive been selling at 16.33.

                                                Avatar ★ Cambumbo · posted

                                                  Even if 15 is a 'quicksell' there are too many sellers at 15 currently for it to be ignored.

                                                  Avatar ★ Neo · posted

                                                    I am talking to a mod atm about 16...

                                                    Avatar ★ Neo · posted
                                                    Avatar ★ Vape Cat · warned by a moderator

                                                      Should probs remove http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24224237 he bumped to selling for 100 ref and buying for a scrap, (Massive Outlier and more then likely a troll trade) also a little while ago (not sure if valid) I bought two for 14.33 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24176844#latest

                                                      Avatar ★ pastel · posted

                                                        I can't remove after 1 hour.

                                                        Avatar ★ Neo · posted

                                                        A lot more supporting proof here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54978cefb88d8852748b4d71

                                                        Avatar ★ polar · posted