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~630 keys
bonzo
Unusual Hong Kong Cone Bonzo the All-Gnawing
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Credits go to DiliGent and [ßЯς] Same2me [75b Pure] for the first sale.


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Sale #1 - sold for:

-Demonflame Antlers (32.3)

-Ghastly Ghosts Neckwear (20.5)

-Collector's Scopers (3.1)


Post:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23534932

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3149824816,30177,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3206452448,30307,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3201849129,993,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3201849147,980,14


(32.3 + 20.5 + 3.1) * 0.9 = 50.31 buds

Rounded to 50 buds


Mini for Demonflame Antlers:


Sold for:

-Scorching Reggae (~19)

-Subeams Janissary (~2.6)

-Scorching Hetmans (~2.5)

-Sunbeams Handle (~2.6)

-TW Merryweather (1.9)

-Logo Dappers (~1.55)

-Hearts Oiled Baker (~3.25)

-Ghosts Batters (~2.5)


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23765020

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23677729


(19 + 2.6 + 2.5 + 2.6 + 1.9 + 1.55 + 3.25 + 2.5) * 0.9 = 32.31 buds

Rounded to 32 buds


Sale #2 - sold for:

-Steaming Le Party Phantom (1.6)

-Strange Orbiting Planets Private Eye (1.1)

-Overclocked Milkman (1.5)

-Orbiting Planets Master's Yellow Belt (2.5)

-Smoking Stainless Pot (1.7)

-Green Energy A Rather Festive Tree (4.5)

-Vivid Plasma A Rather Festive Tree (2.8)

-Purple Confetti A Rather Festive Tree (1.9)

-Anti-Freeze A Rather Festive Tree (6.3)

-Circling Heart A Rather Festive Tree (3.9)

-Duped Haunted Ghosts A Rather Festive Tree (3.7)

-Blizzardy Storm Flipped Trilby (1.7)

-Nuts n' Bolts Soldier's Stash (2.8)

-Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun (4.8 buds)

-1 bud pure (buds were 15 keys at time of sale)

-16x Bill's Hat (4 keys each) = 4.27 buds

-~31 keys of killstreak sweets. ~2.07 buds

-~255 ref in other sweets = ~25 keys at time of sale = ~1.67 buds


Histories of seller before:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093707809?time=1414825200

History of seller after:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093707809?time=1415001600

History of buyer before:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080551754?time=1414911600

History of buyer after:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080551754?time=1415001600


Screenshots:

http://imgur.com/a/e3qQv


(1.6 + 1.1 + 1.5 + 2.5 + 1.7 + 4.5 + 2.8 + 1.9 + 6.3 + 3.9 + 3.7 + 1.7 + 2.8 + 4.8 + 1 + 4.27 + 2.07 + 1.67) * .9 = 44.829 buds

Rounded to 45 buds


Mini for Collector's Professional Killstreak Sydney Sleeper:

Kit is selling for 7-9 USD on market. Collector's Professional Killstreak Sydney Sleeper is valued at 2.4 keys. Using 6 keys as estimate


Mini for Strange Professional Killstreak Boston Basher:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?tradable=1&craftable=1&item=Boston%20Basher&quality=11&killstreak_tier=3

Using 3 keys


Mini for Genuine Professional Killstreak Three-Rune Blade

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Genuine%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Three-Rune%20Blade

7.5 USD as average sale price. Using 3 keys as estimate.


Mini for Strange Professional Killstreak Syringe Gun

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Syringe%20Gun

7.5 USD as average sale price. Using 2.5 keys as estimate.


Mini for Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Axtinguisher

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Axtinguisher

9-11 USD as average sale price. Using 4.5 keys as estimate.


Mini for Strange Professional Killstreak Diamondback

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?tradable=1&craftable=1&item=Diamondback&quality=11&killstreak_tier=3

Using 2.5 keys.


Mini for Professional Killstreak Scattergun

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Professional%20Killstreak%20Scattergun

8 USD as average sale price. Using 3.5 keys as estimate.


Mini for killstreak/specialized killstreak kits:

Totalled $14.93. Using 6 keys as estimate.


Mini for Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=1&item=Scattergun&quality=11&killstreak_tier=3

48 - 52 keys

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Australium%20Scattergun

~130 USD

Using 4.8 buds.


Note: Although some prices used are outdated and Ghosts Tree being duped is ignored, they still reflect an accurate value. The differences are negligible.

Note: There is an exception to the above. The value of Smoking Stainless Pot should be .3 - .5 buds lower than its current value. However, as mentioned above, the difference would not affect the result.

Note: Current price for Australium Scattergun is horribly outdated.


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Feel free to leave your thoughts.

    Steaming Le Party Phantom

    orbiting planets private eye

    orbiting planets master's yellow belt

    smoking stainless pot

    a rather festive tree green energy

    a rather festive tree vivid plasma

    a rather festive tree purple confetti

    a rather festive tree haunted ghosts

    flipped trllby blizzardy storm


    are all outdated I really can't see how they can reflect an accurate value since they represent a large portion of the price.

      downvoted my comment because I pointed out that what you just did is extremely flawed is also very immature. Kudos to you for being unable to deal with criticism, ironic that you attacked the last suggestion for not doing things well yet you tried to get away with 9/14 outdated prices.

        I did not downvote your comment.


        I attacked the last suggestion because it appeared to me that the suggester was lazy and refused to follow the rules.

        "Estimations can be made for unpriced / outdated parts of that trade as long as reasonable estimations are provided."


        For example, Steaming Le Party Phantom is outdated at a price of 1.6 buds, but its counterpart, the Smoking Le Party Phantom has a recent price of 1.8 buds. 1.6 buds evaluation does not seem unreasonable at all.

          I can't see any of your estimations written anywhere and should we go on 'estimations' just because you don't feel like doing the minis? What about using an estimation for a green confetti a rather festive tree which have close to a bud difference in price and is also outdated.

          First search on tf2op:

          Green energy Festive tree offered 65 keys (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23954003) and that's when buds were at 13-13.5 keys. Close to 5 buds practically and that's an offer that wasn't accepted.

            I am not too sure about what you mean with the G Fetti Tree. Are you talking about its P Fetti counterpart? They're almost identical in backpack.tf prices.


            And okay. I will look into the estimations, including trying to find and look at the examples of good/bad estimations polar has provided in the cheat sheet. Thank you for your feedbacks.

              Ideally just work out minis, it's what everyone does these days. Since all those hats have been sold recently minis can be worked out, I'd only use an estimation in the case that there was only 1 recent sale and I'd try and work out an estimation to help provide proof. But otherwise stick to minis cause they're alot more accurate and reflect alot better considering how many unusuals there are.

                If you like I could help you make some of the minis, I'll collect proof on say 5 of them and you can get the other 4. Added you to discuss how we could divide them.

        Huge props to NedHasNoHeadPoorNed for helping me with this suggestion. Never thought someone would help me with something like this. Truly appreciate it.


        All outdated/duped hats:


        Duped Green Energy A Rather Festive Tree (4.6):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549af6c5ba8d8889478b45d7

        Sold for [Circling Peace Sign Tartan Spartan (2.22) + Purple Energy Western Wear (2.94)]:

        Backpack of buyer before:

        http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107630559?time=1419148800

        Backpack of buyer after:

        http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107630559?time=1419088417


        (2.22 + 2.94) * .9 = 4.644 buds

        Rounded to 4.6 buds


        Vivid Plasma A Rather Festive Tree (2.8):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54143e9db98d88793b8b4a12

        The suggestion was pass on September 13th. This is JUST over 3 months. It is fine to leave it.


        Purple Confetti A Rather Festive Tree (2):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549af6c0ba8d88cc478b45bf


        Smoking Stainless Pot (1.65):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549aec07ba8d88e95d8b4598


        Orbiting Planets Private Eye (1.2):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549ae00fb98d8899508b457d


        Steaming Le Party Phantom (1.3):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549ace35b98d88dd518b47ac


        Blizzardy Storm Flipped Trilby (1.75):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549af6bfba8d88925d8b45c0


        Orbiting Planets Master's Yellow Belt (2.02):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549ae288b88d884a188b4576


        Duped Haunted Ghosts A Rather Festive Tree (3.7):

        Sold for Cloud 9 Bonk Helm (3) + 1 bud:

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23738367

        Backpack of buyer before:

        http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043502104?time=1416384000

        Backpack of buyer after:

        http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043502104?time=1416556800


        3 * .9 + 1 = 3.7 buds


        Mini for Cloud 9 Bonk Helm (3):

        http://backpack.tf/vote/id/549af6c1ba8d88ec5d8b45d9


        NEW CALCULATION:

        -Steaming Le Party Phantom (1.3)

        -Strange Orbiting Planets Private Eye (1.2)

        -Overclocked Milkman (1.5)

        -Orbiting Planets Master's Yellow Belt (2.05)

        -Smoking Stainless Pot (1.65)

        -Green Energy A Rather Festive Tree (4.6)

        -Vivid Plasma A Rather Festive Tree (2.8)

        -Purple Confetti A Rather Festive Tree (2)

        -Anti-Freeze A Rather Festive Tree (6.3)

        -Circling Heart A Rather Festive Tree (3.9)

        -Duped Haunted Ghosts A Rather Festive Tree (3.7)

        -Blizzardy Storm Flipped Trilby (1.75)

        -Nuts n' Bolts Soldier's Stash (2.8)

        -Strange Professional Killstreak Australium Scattergun (4.8 buds)

        -1 bud pure (buds were 15 keys at time of sale)

        -16x Bill's Hat (4 keys each) = 4.27 buds

        -~31 keys of killstreak sweets. ~2.07 buds

        -~255 ref in other sweets = ~25 keys at time of sale = ~1.67 buds


        (1.3 + 1.2 + 1.5 + 2.05 + 1.65 + 4.6 + 2.8 + 2 + 6.3 + 3.9 + 3.7 + 1.75 + 2.8 + 4.8 + 4.27 + 2.07 + 1.67) * .9 + 1 = 44.524 buds

        Rounded to 45 buds.


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        Good game.

          looks great now mate, good job and was a pleasure working with you =)

            Thanks man. Same to you ^^

          Oh cool, cheers for nicking my evidence without even mentioning it to me.

          I thought after your comments that you maybe had a shred of decency.

            I gave you credits. What more do you want?