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Most of the sales that occured in the past 3 months seem to have been via the SCM as couldn't trace their backpack history.
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24229954 B:O 15 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23975032 B.O 17 keys
Sales:
Sale 1:
backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059494711?time=1418889600
backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059494711?time=1418976000
Sold for 16 keys which is
1.42 buds rounded down to
1.4 buds
Sale 2:
backpack before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044481005?time=1417507200
backpack after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044481005?time=1417680000
Bought for a bud
Additional proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23975032 Offered a miami nights private eye (2-2.4) if owner adds a bud (more or less) in hats.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23757783 B.O of 1.2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23992291 B.O of 1.3 buds
Actually, the first sale would be:
16 / 11 = 1.45 which would round to 1.5
This is close enough though.
keys are 11-11.5 atm so I divided it by 11.25, you need to take the mid-value mate.
That's right, but looking at classifieds which are filled with 10 Key sellers, it'd be more realistic.
It doesn't matter at all though.
check the other suggestions, you still use the current key price mate