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Only one sale in a while.
Current b/o:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24155379 - 16 buds
Sale:
Offered with 12 keys for scorching barnstormer (10) + terror watt Caribbean (3.2) ~ 13 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23270439 - barnstormer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23806819 - brainiac
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107448758?time=1416816000 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107448758?time=1417161600 - after
Mini for barnstormer:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23200172 - DP pullover (which sold for a burning tower at that time: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23299092 b/o 10 buds, but pullover had b/o of 8. Taking 8-10 here) + 18 keys (1.1) ~ 10 buds seems reasonable
Mini for carribean:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23354688 - offered on a scorching ketche (3) + some mid tier stranges ~ 3.2 buds (sellers b/o)
Terror-Watt Caribbean has an updated price now . http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54a8baffba8d88b04e8b4801 which is 2 buds. The sale that you presented seems even lower now.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23903680 - c/o ~dbd law/burning mining ~13-14
Maybe this is close enough. ~14*0.9 = 12.6
~12-13 or simply 12.5 should be good here.